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Saturday, January 5, 2008

Sweet home, Obama?

First post-Iowa poll, by Rasmussen, out this morning found Obama jumping to a 10% lead over Hillary in New Hampshire, with Edwards trailing badly. McCain has stalled.

Now the American Research Group (ARG) poll, also post-Iowa, may confirm this, showing Obama with a shocking 12% bulge over Clinton at 38% to 26%, with Edwards picking up a fresh 5% and actually threatening Hillary with 20%. That's a 16% swing to Obama since the previous poll earlier this week. ARG says the poll was taken yesterday and today.

Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, who may make up one-third or more of the tally on Tuesday. UPDATE: New CNN poll puts it at 33%-33%, with Edwards at 20%. So a lot riding on tonight's debate.

Another intriguing tidbit: Rasmussen has Ron Paul in 3rd place, ahead of Huck.

Also, expect more news about Bill O'Reilly shoving an Obama aide at New Hampshire rally. This brief video captures the aftermath, with Papa Bear telling Obama, "You're a good guy."


nganger said...

Politics is starting to be fun again. After almost eight years of wanting to barf (between heart-stopping wawes of anxiety as the turkey in office led us to the precipice of his own pathology, I see something happening that makes me hope. A man of color is running against a woman. A war hero is running against a fundamentalist Christian and a chameleon executive type. Wow. We actually have to think again.

Livingamongmorons said...

God please, please NH Democrats, vote for John Edwards. No matter how good and fuzzy and warm it makes you feel, voting for Obama only brings an unelectable candidate closer to the nomination. I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but Obama won't carry six states in November against any Republican. This country is still racist to it's core, and by the time the GOP gets through with him, half the country will be convinced that Barack is a Muslim Manchurian Candidate in league with Bin Laden. I hate to say it, but it's true.

Anonymous said...

This note on Acropolis Review citing an Atlanta Journal-Constitution article from a while back suggests Obama has growing support in the South as well:


Maxbyte said...

Interesting glimpse of O'Reilly.

Where's the beef [poll details] for the two polls you mention?

ARG can't always conduct credible polls or provide details. Rasmussen has a better image and has good teams.

Just curious if you have a link. Thanks.

Anthony said...

CNN is ridiculous, Obama and hillary tied and yet the others [ARG and Ramussen] have Obama leading by 10 or 12 pts. CNN is a pain in my @ss!

ngchg said...


I think that many people are getting warm and fuzzy feelings when they subscribe to the Obama wave, but do you think Edwards is really going to pull people from across the aisle? Sure, there will be the rural types and the union types who will be attracted to Edwards, but Obama, just as he did in Iowa, will bring big new turnouts and make voting in this election a paramount moment for young people and blacks. Oh and Iowa was 95% white and full of elderly voters.

He isn't going to carry Alabama, but I think he could take Ohio from Huckabee or Romney or even McCain. Edwards is too angry and slimey and is not going be an icon of our generation.

Aaron X said...

As someone who has attended an Obama rally with a press pass, I can tell you that the Obama campaign and his staffers are far more concerned with the everyday people who attend these events, making sure that the elderly and the disabled have a place to observe the event without being molested and shoved aside by press people. The press is largely kept at bay, and I can tell you that kind of thing doesn't make the press people happy.

O'Reilly is just being treated the same way that the Obama staffers have been instructed to treat the rest of the press. If O'Reilly wants better access he should just show up there as an anonymous individual without his team, and he would have a much better chance of talking to Obama.

And for the record, O'Reilly is no journalist, anyone who believes that he is doesn't understand the definition of the term journalist. O'Reilly is a propagandist, and the network he works for Fox is a nothing more than a propaganda arm of the right wing corporate agenda in this country. They have no credibility.

Anonymous said...

livingamongmorons - Sorry, but I strongly disagree with you. Obama will win the election if given the chance. If you watched his winning speech in Iowa, you will understand. Even the cnn/msnbc commentaries were saying it was giving themgoosebumps. The ticket will hopefully be Obama (pres)/Edwards (vice). That's the best chance for us now. You can also start to see Republicans getting scared of Obama with some of the analysis on cnn/msnbc. They are saying that he doesn't have any experience and that he won't hold up to a republican. I strongly doubt that. I hope they use that argument in the race because Obama will clobber them. I attended the caucus in Iowa, and there were 196 for Obama, 57 Edwards, and 64 for Clinton. Obama will win!!