First post-Iowa poll, by Rasmussen, out this morning found Obama jumping to a 10% lead over Hillary in New Hampshire, with Edwards trailing badly. McCain has stalled.
Now the American Research Group (ARG) poll, also post-Iowa, may confirm this, showing Obama with a shocking 12% bulge over Clinton at 38% to 26%, with Edwards picking up a fresh 5% and actually threatening Hillary with 20%. That's a 16% swing to Obama since the previous poll earlier this week. ARG says the poll was taken yesterday and today.
Most interesting detail deep in the ARG numbers: Hillary actually leads Obama 34% to 32% among confirmed Democrats, while he tops her 49% to 12% among independents, who may make up one-third or more of the tally on Tuesday. UPDATE: New CNN poll puts it at 33%-33%, with Edwards at 20%. So a lot riding on tonight's debate.
Another intriguing tidbit: Rasmussen has Ron Paul in 3rd place, ahead of Huck.
Also, expect more news about Bill O'Reilly shoving an Obama aide at New Hampshire rally. This brief video captures the aftermath, with Papa Bear telling Obama, "You're a good guy."