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Wednesday, February 6, 2008

There's got to be a morning after...

As predicted, the day-after battle is over delegate counts. The Washington Post has Clinton gaining 540 and Obama 539, though the count shifts hourly. As Keith Olbermann said about 2 a.m. today, "All of this -- for a four delegate shift." Hillary no doubt leads in the overall race by a small margin due to "super-delegate" commitments but most in that category are still undecided, the upcoming states seem to favor Obama a little, and he has a big lead in fundraising. So it is a true "tossup." I expect the April 22 date in Pennsylvania will be viewed as the tie-breaker (unless Obama wins both Ohio and Texas, not likely) -- and even that won't settle it.

One interesting, if disturbing scenario emerging: Obama ends primary season with clear edge in "elected" delegates while Clinton heads to convention with overall lead due to the party insider "super-delegates." Or it could be the reverse. So will it be 1968 all over again: The people vs. the bosses? And let's not forget: those disqualified Michigan and Florida delegates, which Clinton will really push for, since she won the "banned" primaries in those states.

I love this report from Andrew Malcolm at his Los Angeles Times "Top of the Ticket" blog: "Officials in Maryland and Virginia reported hundreds showing up ready to vote, although their primaries are a week away. Apparently the media coverage and citizen interest in the unfolding campaigns had created such interest the would-be voters forgot to check their local dates. Virginia and Maryland were not among the 24 states scheduled to vote on so-called Super Tuesday. Election officials in San Antonio reported more than 1,000 calls about today's Texas primary, which wasn't today but is set for March 4."

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