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Saturday, September 1, 2012

RNC Bump--for Obama?


Sunday:   STILL no Romney bump, as Obama maintains 47-46 lead in new Gallup daily tracking poll, which now includes effect of nearly all of the RNC.  GOPers had predicted the bump would show up about now in Gallup (which averages the past 7 daily polls.)  Maybe tomorrow?   But now the DNC is about to open...

Saturday:   Big news in new Reuters-Ipsos poll, which yesterday seemed to show nice Romney "bounce," putting him in the lead.  Today, Obama back on top.  It's a four-day "rolling" poll so most of impact from RNC is done.

Earlier Sat.:  Still no Romney bump in Gallup poll released at 1 pm today.  It's true, it's an average of past seven days--but now three of those seven days coincide with the GOP convention and NO bump at all has shown up so far, if anything slight gain for Obama.

Friday:  As I noted yesterday, fanatics (i.e., yours truly) often go to the main Gallup site at 1 pm for the daily update on their "tracking" polls, which provide the best current view of where a race stands.  They've just posted results for today and, despite all the hype about likely Romney "bounce" from the convention, the latest snapshot has the race unchanged at all, with Obama still ahead 47-46.  Same thing happened yesterday.

But one  change today: Obama's approval rate UP one point and disapproval mark DOWN one point.  Also:  He has gained 3% in approval from those key target voters, the independents.

Frank Newport, the Gallup chief, on MSNBC just now noted the unexpected slight gains for Obama this week but said might still see Romney bump over the weekend.  But then Dem convention comes along.  Perhaps what Mitt needs now:  The "Colbert bounce."


Anonymous said...

Perhaps you don't know what 7 day tracking poll means. That means results from the previous 7 days - all before the Romney speech - are counted in the poll. Full results from the 'post RNC/Romney Speech' will not be shown until 9/7. So right now more than 70% of the data is pre RNC. You will likely see movement toward Romney Sunday, as more than half of the data points will be post Tuesday night's RNC opening, with full impact by Friday 9/7.

Of course, you won't see the DNC bounce until 9/14. For more immediate results, you should check the Rasmussen 3 day rolling tracking poll. Monday will have full 3 day post RNC stats. Also, Rasmussen tends to be the most accurate poll.

Also, sometime mid September Gallup will switch from Registered Voters to Likely voters. The use of 'likely' vs 'registered' voters makes a huge difference, and tends to be more accurate in predicting.

Leonard Johnson said...

The results are from August 25 - 31.

Derek Losey said...

Anonymous said... "Also, Rasmussen tends to be the most accurate poll."

Well, not if we let actual history be our guide... http://nyti.ms/SJ8jM9

Rasmussen uses less accurate robo-dialing instead of live interviews. That and land-line only causes the consistent problems that landed Scott Rasmussen at the bottom of the heap for accuracy in the 2010 mid-terms.