Saturday, September 1, 2012
RNC Bump--for Obama?
Sunday: STILL no Romney bump, as Obama maintains 47-46 lead in new Gallup daily tracking poll, which now includes effect of nearly all of the RNC. GOPers had predicted the bump would show up about now in Gallup (which averages the past 7 daily polls.) Maybe tomorrow? But now the DNC is about to open...
Saturday: Big news in new Reuters-Ipsos poll, which yesterday seemed to show nice Romney "bounce," putting him in the lead. Today, Obama back on top. It's a four-day "rolling" poll so most of impact from RNC is done.
Earlier Sat.: Still no Romney bump in Gallup poll released at 1 pm today. It's true, it's an average of past seven days--but now three of those seven days coincide with the GOP convention and NO bump at all has shown up so far, if anything slight gain for Obama.
Friday: As I noted yesterday, fanatics (i.e., yours truly) often go to the main Gallup site at 1 pm for the daily update on their "tracking" polls, which provide the best current view of where a race stands. They've just posted results for today and, despite all the hype about likely Romney "bounce" from the convention, the latest snapshot has the race unchanged at all, with Obama still ahead 47-46. Same thing happened yesterday.
But one change today: Obama's approval rate UP one point and disapproval mark DOWN one point. Also: He has gained 3% in approval from those key target voters, the independents.
Frank Newport, the Gallup chief, on MSNBC just now noted the unexpected slight gains for Obama this week but said might still see Romney bump over the weekend. But then Dem convention comes along. Perhaps what Mitt needs now: The "Colbert bounce."
is author of a dozen books (click on covers at right), including the new "THE TUNNELS: Escapes Under the Berlin Wall and the Historic Films the JFK White House Tried to Kill." He was the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher. Email: email@example.com. Twitter: @GregMitch