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Friday, September 14, 2012

Update: Latest Polls on Prez Race

Friday   New NYT/CBS poll out today and uniike some others it shows Obama with slim 3% lead.  This is their first poll to switch over to the "likely voter" format (Obama's lead remains much larger in the "registered voter" sample).  Gender gap? Women favor the president by 12%.   His edge among those 18 to 29 only 8%.   Three in four GOPers claim they are personally  "worse off" than 4 years ago--really folks?  And about same number of Dems says they are "better off."  Those making over $100,000 strong back Romney.  Shocking.

Speaking of polls, take my poll at upper right on this site.

Thursday  Brutal news for Romney in new NBC/WSJ poll which finds him now trailing in Ohio by 7%--and a surprising 5% in Florida and Virginia.

 Gallup in its daily 1 pm report on tracking poll seems to show end of post-DNC "bounce"--but now we have a bump form Romney's Libya misadventures to possibly look forward to.  For now:  Obama's lead shrank from 7% to 6% but he remained at the magic 50% number.  His approval rating took a 2% hit, down to 49%. 

 New poll in Michigan finds 10% lead for Obama.  Previously led by just 3%.

In first daily national tracking poll, Rasmussen, as usual the outlier, actually places Romney back in front 47%-46%.  That's great because it will mislead GOP into thinking all is well. 

Wednesday:  Even Fox poll now puts Obama 5% in front, just released tonight. He trailed by 1% in their last poll.  Detail: now leads among women by a whopping 14%.

First daily tracking result announced today came from Rasmussen, which naturally declared Obama surge is "over" and finding he now leads by only 1%.  Gallup just now with its usual 1 pm report begs to differ and in a big way, noting another gain for Obama--to a nice 7% lead, 50%-43%, even though convention now over for five days.  Needless to say, biggest edge ever--and possible explanation for Romney's disgraceful attempt to politicize Libya tragedy.  Approval rating for Obama also up to 51%-42% bulge.

Also: New Reuters-Ipsos poll finds this key surge: In the "generic ballot" for Congress, where GOP has led or most recently tied the Dems, they now trail their rivals by 49%-43%.  This is another reason GOP leaders in a panic this week.

Tuesday We've been following the daily tracking polls for the past week, with big gains for Obama starting last Thursday.  Today's Gallup poll, just posted, finds Obama gaining yet another point in the race, now topping Romney 50%-44%--the first time he has hit the magical 50% level since May.  This comes just as a Rasmussen poll found the race tightening a bit and Nate Silver at NYT warning the "bounce" ought to wear off now.  But so far: not really.

And all of this only gives lie to the pundit prediction of big trouble for Obama in last Friday's weak jobs report.  As I'd predicted: not even a ripple.

1 comment:

DHRiley said...

What's the matter with women? Only a 14% lead? Why would any woman vote for a Republican? Whopping should be in the 35% lead range.