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Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Wednesday Update: Poll, Poll, Pitiful Me

Wednesday update:  Gallup in its daily 1 p.m. report on its tracking poll finds, as I guessed, a whopping 3% gain for Obama in the race, now moving it up to 50%-44%.  He also gained a point in approval rating to 51%.  Both numbers now over that magical 50% mark.

Same poll cited just below also gives Dem senators big leads in those states:  Bill Nelson by 14% in Florida and Sherrod Brown by 10% in Ohio.  This is consistent with other polls, by the way.

New NYT/Quinnipiac poll finds Obama widening lead in two key states, Ohio and Florida, plus the peripherals looks good.  If he wins those two it's a wrap.  And the lead is now massive: 10% in Ohio and 9% in Florida (plus 12% in PA.).   So is the enthusiasm gap.  And Obama holds an amazing 25% lead among women in Ohio, and a 35% bulge among young people there.

Remember the tales of the youth vote being up for grabs this year?  I guess Paul Ryan's iPod playlist--mainly Boomer--backfired...

Tuesday update:   New Bloomberg poll gives Obama clear 6% lead.

Gallup daily tracking just out at 1 pm ups Obama lead over Romney to 48%-45%, actually one of the more narrow current bulges. 

Wash Post cites new polls showing large Obama bulge in Ohio and clear edge in Florida.  GOPers, meanwhile, reduced to claiming all of the key polls "oversample" Dems:  More evidence that they are stuck inside "the bubble." Or they just don't realize: when voters switch to one candidate they often start claiming that they are members of his party,  which leads to what seems like "over-sampling." 

Monday update:  The daily 1 p.m. report from Gallup on their tracking poll (which averages the past 7 days) finds no change in Obama's 2% bulge vs. Romney--but widens his approval "plus" rating to 9%, at 51%-42%. 

Sunday update:  Big boost for Obama in new Gallup today--effect of Romney video, as I predicted, now settling in?  His approval rating suddenly jumped 4% and disapproval down 3%, so now at very good 51%-43%.  Also opened up 2% lead over Romney, which will probably grow as the 7-day average continues. 

Friday updates   Much-awaited Pew Research poll finds Obama a whopping 8% ahead.  Go here for many details. Critically, Obama now tops Romney easily for enthusiastic support, 68% to 56%.

New Gallup daily tracking just out at 1 p.m.  No change on race, deadlocked, but Obama picked up a point in approval, to 47%.  Any fallout from the Romney video should show up in a day or two.

 Director of NBC polling on Chuck Todd's show just now says these very big Obama gains in three key swing states (see below) might reflect fallout from Romney video, since some of polling took place after the vid came out--and his favorable ratings really dropped. 

Today's Rasmussen finds Obama with 2% lead, 3% counting "leaners."

Thursday Updates:  Breaking this evening: New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls.   CO - Obama 50%, Romney 45%; IA - Obama 50%, Romney 42%; WI - Obama 50%, Romney 45.   All better marks for Obama than in past in true toss-up states. 

Gallup, which gave Obama a big bounce after DNC--all the way to a 7% lead--just now in its daily tracking (which averages the past seven days)-- calls the race dead even.  It also sliced another two points off Obama's "approval" rating, now down from 52% to 46%.  One wonders if--at least via Gallup--the Libya episode rebounded against Obama, despite the egregious Romney statements.

 Is that a big "doh" we're hearing this morning from GOPers?  Even as most polls show nice Obama lead, Repubs have clung to Rasmussen for dear life, as it has showed a Romney lead in recent days.  Today, suddenly, it shifts to putting Obama back in front by 3%.

Nate Silver with Thursday update, looking at vast number of national and state polls released yesterday.  Although some dissonance, finds that most favor Obama and while his "bounce" seems to have ended in national polling it's still there at the state level.  And he points out again, as below, that polls including cell phone "surveying" are most accurate.

Fascinating report by Silver on breakdown in polls this year--ones that survey voters--some reached via cellphones--strongly back Obama.  Those that don't, don't. Bringing new meaning to "smart phones."  Of course, the demo may be somewhat different for cell phones, although not so great as years ago when they really skewed young.  One results: "Mr. Obama’s advantage is also clearer in the swing states. The cellphone-inclusive polls give him an 80 percent chance to win Virginia, a 79 percent chance in Ohio, and a 68 percent chance to win Florida, all considerably higher than in the official FiveThirtyEight forecast."


CinDCat said...

As an independent I was unsure of my choice for the most part…then came the Romney video, which confirmed once & for all that Romney is not in this to better America but to showcase himself! He can never understand the problems of the middle class, nor does he show any desire to. Ive made my choice!

Anonymous said...

I have changed my voting status from Republican to independent. Reason for this change my old party has lost their damn minds. I didn't leave them they left me. Republicans are no longer the party of all the people they are the party of billionaires and poor/ middle class killers. I will never adhere to radical right wing beliefs they have now formed and will not allow them as a party to make myself and other women second class citizens.