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Monday, September 10, 2012

Sunday Update: Obama's 'Bump' Is Really Showing

Monday    Confirming all of the other good polling for Obama, brand new CNN-ORC find him with a sudden 6% lead, at 52%-46.  They were tied before the DNC.  For the first time, Dems also now top GOPers in the "enthusiastic" race,  59%-57%.

Gallup just out with its daily 1 pm poll release--and finally, after several days of "bounce," there's no change from yesterday, with Obama maintaining 5% lead.

The first of today's daily tracking polls is out and GOP-friendly Rasmussen continues to find a post-DNC surge for Obama, with the president widening his lead over Romney to 5%, the highest mark for him since last March.  

Sunday   Just out, one of the first state polls by a leading firm since DNC finds Obama surging to a  5% lead in Ohio in the PPP survey, his biggest lead in that poll in months.

Final daily tracking poll of the day just out, with Reuters-Ipsos finding no change from yesterday's 4% Obama lead. Even if that marks end of post-DNC bounce--by no means certain--Reuters notes that Romney's small bump after RNC disappeared completely and Obama's is not. 

Gallup, with its daily 1 pm. update,  finds Obama gaining another point on Romney in the head to head, continuing his post-DNC bounce--now up to 5%, at 49%-44%.  Disapproval rating took a 2% hit, however, down to still-high 50%.

Rasmussen, which noted Obama bounce yesterday in finding he now led Romney by 2%, reports new poll today upping that to 4%--highest mark vs. Mitt since last March.  Since it's Rasmussen, you could probably add a couple of points for Obama to that.  Romney camp HAS to be concerned now.

Saturday   Late this afternoon we have another major poll finding a healthy bump.  Reuters-Ipsos now gives Obama a clear 4% lead.  He had trailed Romney at the start of this week so the DNC would seem to be the cause.  They also seem to think the jobs report early Friday did not seem to be hurting him so far.  And:  "Obama led Romney in a dozen such favorable characteristics, such as 'represents America' or 'has the right values.' The only such category in which Romney had an advantage was being 'a man of faith.'"

 Gallup released its latest poll news, at 1 pm as usual, and they find another gain for the president, though not as dramatic as yesterday's bump (see below).  Today, in its poll averaging the last three days of results, he did not gain in approval rating but lost a point of "disapproval," so that radio is now at 52%-42%--his highest mark in 15 months.   At the same, in its 7-day polling, he picked up another point vs Romney, spreading his lead to 49%-45%, a recent high.  And that still does not include all of the impact of the three days of the DNC.

Even unreliable Rasmussen today reveals a nice Obama bounce in its latest daily tracking poll.  It was the only poll that gave Romney a bump after the RNC, putting him in the lead, but now finds just as big a bump for Obama, putting him back 2% in front.

Nate Silver at the NYT is out with his analysis of the polls and (I must say) it shows I had it first and correctly below.  He does add a 2% gain in Rasmussen but their findings are always so questionable that's pretty meaningless.  Nate does add a lot of analysis. Question remains:  Will Obama retain the bounce next week and go into the debates as true frontrunner?

Later Friday:  Reuters-IPSOS joined Gallup tonight in finding a bump from the DNC.  It had not seen much before but today revealed a 2% spike for Obama, and a 1% decline for Romney, along with some favorable metrics up about 4%.  Obama now leads there 46%-44%.  They suggest there could be more gains tomorrow.

Friday:  Gallup, as usual, posted its latest poll findings at 1 pm--and found a big bounce for Obama from this year's convention, as we first noted below.  They show a very strong one-day 3% hike in his approval rating to 52%--his highest mark since the summer of 2011.  This means that he gained a whopping 7% in just the past three days.

Also, for the first time in more than a week, the numbers on his contest with Romney moved.  It had been a 47% to 46% lead for him (with no change from the RNC)--but now he has opened lead to 3%, at 48%-45%.  And that's in a 7-day poll average with only the first couple days of the DNC factored in, so it should go up a bit more over the next few days.  Here's report on all this from Gallup.  (Note: Gallup site erratic, probably due to heavy traffic right now.)

Thursday:  He hasn't even given his speech yet, but the President is already getting a bounce from this week's DNC, at least according to a new Gallup poll just revealed at 1 p.m.   It found another 2% hike in his approval rating to a recent high of 49%, based on polling just from the past three days.   Yesterday it had found a similar 2% hike, meaning he has gained 4% already (even before polling after the Clinton epic last night).

Gallup continued to put the race at 47%-46% for Obama, based on its 7-day polling, which would not be expected to show a DNC bump yet.  Maybe a small one tomorrow or Friday.  Logically, this will show up as the 7-day average rolls along.


Anonymous said...

Little confused because Rassmussen shows no bounce, and in fact added a point to Romney in the Swing State poll.

Reuters also shows Romney 1 up on Obama in it's tracking poll through the last couple days.

What bump?

blogliberally.com said...

Well Rasmussen would show that. JUST IN CASE , "Anonymous" wasn't aware of the facts about the Rassmussen polling company it is a GOP leaning... no not just leaning... They have completely fallen down for the GOP.

Anonymous said...

Rassmussen has a small Republican lean in their numbers, and if you compare it to previous polls done by Rassmussen, a 1% lead by Romney is actually a drop from a 3% lead Romney held a month ago, and a drop from the 2% lead Romney held in the Rassmussen poll done before the convention.

yourname here said...

Imagine that a conservative poll not flattering a Democratic... Gallup is non partisan

Josh Christensen said...

All polls have to be taken with a grain of salt, but the amount of people who watched the DNC was definitely far greater than RNC viewers if television ratings are to believed.

The fact they had well known prime-time speakers, most of whom nailed their speeches in front of a large audience would indicate a bump is likely.

If you wanted to judge winners and losers, you'd have to say the DNC won out over the RNC. Even taking account of the fact Obama's speech may have fallen flat, it will still probably be better remembered than Romney's, whose speech was largely overshadowed by Clint Eastwood's in post convention coverage.

Any bump in the polls has to be disconcerting for Romney considering the almost complete lack of a post-RNC bump.

Anonymous said...

As a working approach, I usually take the Rasmussen margin of error, double it, and switch that level from the Republican to the Democrat side. A 5% MOA is usually a ten point GOP bias.

CinDCat said...

After watching Bill Clinton & hearing his analysis, I think anyone wud b impressed! I tweeted at the time, & still do believe, that Clinton had just assured an Obama win!! By next week that bump wil b 5 mor points--tough for Romney.