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Monday, October 1, 2012

Poll Watch Updates

Tuesday:  Gallup's daily 1 pm update: After Obama's lead had shrunk from 6% to 4% in recent days, now it's back up to 6%, at 50%-44%.  So much for Mittmentum.

 Today's Rasmussen tracker cuts Obama lead from 3% to 1%, for what it's worth.

Monday   New Gallup daily tracker posted at 1 p.m. finds Romney closing to 4%.  Feel the Mittmentum!  Plus new CNN/ORC has Obama lead down from 6% to 3% and Wash Post/ABC today pegs it at just 2%.  Whether this is real tightening of just poll noise no one knows.

Earlier today, even Rasmussen really going against Mitt now, as today's daily tracking poll, just up, shows Obama with clear 3% edge--and reaching the magical 50% mark for first time.   Looking forward to new talk of "skewed" polls today. 

Saturday:  Well, I guess Rasmussen is in the tank for the Democrats too ( for the first time) and skewing results.  Its daily poll just out now gives Obama a 2% lead with only 4% undecided.  When they factored in leaners--same 2%.  We'll also recall that the latest Fox poll has Obama up by 5%. 

New from Politico:  many campaign experts now believe an Obama "blowout" in the Electoral College is quite possible.  They note Obama camp's success is picking states where he can win, and "defining" Romney there.  Even states where he had little chance, such as Arizona, in play now, at least judged by new polls.

Friday update:  Stop the presses!  Today's Rasmussen tracking survey actually puts Obama in front by 1%.  So Scott has joined the skewers!  Romney had led or been tied for many days.

 Nate Silver at NYT explores point I've made--that Obama's post-DNC "bounce" had ended, but then the 47% video came along and the bounce clearly returned.  Now: "What we can say with more confidence is that Mr. Romney is now in a rather poor position in the polls. In three of the four national tracking surveys published on Thursday, Mr. Romney trailed by margins of six, seven and eight percentage points."

Fox News hosts and guests all day deride polls showing "skewed" lead for Obama--and today comes out with its own one putting guess who in front by 5%?  Yes, it's Obama.   

Rasmussen, old reliable, with daily tracker today still showing race tied.  See my new piece at The Nation on how Rasmussen makes GOPers delusional--practically guaranteeing an Obama win. 

Thursday update:   Gallup's daily tracker, which found big boost for Obama yesterday, today shows no change, meaning Obama retains 6% bulge.

Wednesday update:  Gallup in its daily 1 p.m. report on its tracking poll finds, as I guessed, a whopping 3% gain for Obama in the race, now moving it up to 50%-44%.  He also gained a point in approval rating to 51%.  Both numbers now over that magical 50% mark.

Same poll cited just below also gives Dem senators big leads in those states:  Bill Nelson by 14% in Florida and Sherrod Brown by 10% in Ohio.  This is consistent with other polls, by the way.

New NYT/Quinnipiac poll finds Obama widening lead in two key states, Ohio and Florida, plus the peripherals looks good.  If he wins those two it's a wrap.  And the lead is now massive: 10% in Ohio and 9% in Florida (plus 12% in PA.).   So is the enthusiasm gap.  And Obama holds an amazing 25% lead among women in Ohio, and a 35% bulge among young people there.

Remember the tales of the youth vote being up for grabs this year?  I guess Paul Ryan's iPod playlist--mainly Boomer--backfired...

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