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Monday, October 22, 2012

Post-Debate Polls and Others Reactions

UPDATE #3  Nate Silver at NYT in twetg helpfully sums of the debate polls:  "Average of CNN, CBS & post-debate polls: 1st: Romney +29;  VP: Biden +6;  2nd: Obama +10;  3rd: Obama +16."

For fun, check out some early images from the new Horses and Bayonets viral brigade. 

UPDATE #2   CNN poll of voters gives it to Obama 48% to 40%--and once again they admit sample skewed GOP.   This time, by 5%. In previous polls, the skew was 8% for GOP (see final paragraph below).  Obama won previous debate by about thesame margin.  Without GOP skew, tonight's would have been much bigger.

Yet CNN, on its site, outrageously leads with:  "A CNN/ORC International Poll following Monday's presidential debate found those who watched the third and final head-to-head matchup of President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney did not identify a clear winner." They also tweeted that out in an email.

Sixty percent of poll say Romney seemed like commander-in-chief. somewhat lower number than Obama (but poll with more Repubs). 

UPDATE #1  First instant poll, and most valid, from CBS,  with 521 undecided voters, scientific sample:  big win for Obama, 53%-23%, 24% tie.  Margin of error: 4%.  CBS poll after 1st debate: Romney wins by 24 points. CBS poll after 3rd debate: Obama wins by 30 point.  

PPP poll of swing state voters: Obama won the debate 53-42, and are planning to vote for him 51-45.

My view:  Obama won as easily as Romney took debate #1, though media will not spin that way, and GOPers and Fox (unlike Dems and MSNBC) won't admit that.  BTW, a new CBS poll tonight on national race gave Obama lead 48% to 46%. 

Earlier:  Okay, I'm back for the post-debate polling and spin.  I've followed the polling fallout more closely than anyone, I think, and will again.  Early pundit reaction:  Even some conservatives say Obama "won on points" but then claim Romney "passed commander-in-chief test."

Maddow going ballistic vs. Steve Schmidt and Romney on changing position again on Afghan war.  Calls it "disqualifying."  Don't hold your breath waiting for media to hit Romney on flip-flops. James Carville going wild saying so clear Obama won.  Repubs can only say: Romney scored on economy--not the subject of debate.

Sen. Rob Portman in spin room:  "Romney if anything seemed more ready to be commander in chief." Charles Krauthammer says this debate probably will make Romney president. But wanted him to be more "bellicose." Karl Rove on Foxcomplains to Greta's 3rd face that Obama said he "took a shot at bin Laden"--no, SEALs shot him,  Karl "corrects" him.

Reminder: CNN again admitted it's post-debate poll was skewed to GOP last week--didn't get as much attention because Obama won anyway.   Like it's poll's for the first debate and the Veep debate, it had, as they disclosed, about an 8% tilt toward GOPers.  The difference last week: after much hammering from me and a few others Wolf Blitzer stressed the "skewing" up front, not in small type on their Web site.  But Romney could do not so great tonight and still easily tie or "win" in the CNN poll.

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