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Monday, October 8, 2012

Mixed Poll Results in Wild Day

TUESDAY:  Step away from the ledge, Obama fans (I'm looking at you, Andrew Sullivan): After all the hand-wringing over a Pew poll yesterday (see below), today's daily tracker from GOP-leaning Rasmussen finds the race in a dead heat, at 48%-48%.   It had Romney ahead by 2% two days ago.  

UPDATE #4  Pew poll shocker just now:  Romney takes 4% lead over Obama in a post-debate survey.    This is a whopping 12% swing since their last poll three weeks ago.  Romney made up a huge gender gap in doing this (which seems a bit odd)--was 18%, now even.  Numbers on Romney winning debate very similar Gallup's (see below), at 66%-20%.

More:  Romney's favorable rating now tops 50%, while Obama's fell to 49%.  Yes, this poll included cell phone interviews--fully 40%.  It does appear--as even Ari Fleischer has pointed out--to be plus-5 for GOPers in its sample.

UPDATE #3  Gallup's daily tracker (based on 7-day average, with about half now reflecting post-debate):   Obama's 3% lead now 5%, in a surprise.  Also, his approval rating, which had been sinking badly, climbs 3% back to 51%.   And approval rating is a three-day poll, meaning it's all post-debate.

UPDATE #2   More welcome news for the president from GOP-leaning Rasmussen:  New poll there just put him 1% in front in swing state Colorado.  This is nothing new in most polls but a first for Rasmussen.

UPDATE #1:  Some good news for Obama just now: today's Rasmussen daily tracker, which had Romney pulling in front by 2% over the weekend, now puts the race back at even, 48%-48%.  And this is a poll that is based purely on post-debate findings.  "Forty-four percent (44%) of voters are “certain” they will vote for Romney and not change their minds. Forty-two percent (42%) are certain they will vote for Obama."  I would guess: much higher numbers than that.

A new Gallup poll, based purely on what voters believe in the post-debate period (its daily tracker is a seven-day-average), finds the race for the White House tied at 47%-47%.  The tracker as of yesterday still gave Obama a 3% lead.  Why?  Gallup found Romney's win in the debate--or, if you will, Obama's flop--the worst in its recorded history.  Of those who watched, Romney won by 72% to 20%.

This is an even wider margin than the instant polls indicated, and perhaps reflects more folks being affected by the media coverage, which kicked in at full-Romney-win throttle.   Even most Democrats said Romney won (no surprise there, actually--even SNL noted MSNBC reaction).   Also troubling for Dems: part of the poll was taken in the aftermath of Friday's good jobs numbers.

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