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Friday, October 5, 2012

Positive Jobs Report Sparks "Conspiracy" Charge

 Saturday:   Just to show how pervasive the consdevative echo chamber is (in case you needed reminding):  PublicPolicyPolling )PPP) tweeted last night: "About 2/3rds of Minnesota Republicans on the 1st night of our poll say they think the BLS manipulated the unemployment numbers to help Obama." And probably:  Saddam was behind 9/11, we found WMD and Obama's birth certificate is fake.

UPDATE #3  Shocked to see staid AP open its story tonight on jobs "conspiracy" this way: 
"Sasquatch might as well have traipsed across the White House lawn Friday with a lost Warren Commission file on his way to the studio where NASA staged the moon landing." More of this please!

UPDATE #2  NYT shoots down Romney and Fox News claim of "real" unemployment in the numbers is 11% or more. 

UPDATE  Latest conspiracy tweets.  Fox News' Eric Bolling: "WOW Obama Labor Dept (7.8%)smarter than all 25 of Americas top Economists (8.2%est)..or something far more insideous/"  .... Rep.  Allen West:  "In regards to today's Jobs report---I agree with former GE CEO Jack Welch, Chicago style politics is at work here."...CNBC's Rick Santelli: "I told you they’d get it under 8 percent — they did! You can let America decide how they got there!"... Fox's Laura Ingraham:  "Jobs from Labor Secretary Hilda Solis are total pro-Obama propaganda--labor force participation rate at 30-yr low. Abysmal!"


With positive jobs report, and unemployment down to 7.8%, cue the right-wing conspiracy theorists--it's all a plot by Obama to help his re-election bid.  "They over-sampled the employed."  A collection of tweets already here.  

Ezra Klein of the Wash Post wrote a piece debunking the conspiracy charge--then tweeted that it was "depressing" that there was any need to do this. 

The "great" Jack Welch had tweeted:  "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change number."  David Frum replied:  "Isn't Jack Welch about the last person on earth who shd talk about organizations manipulating numbers to impress markets?"

Still, Joe Scarborough quoted Welch, saying numbers don't add up. And from Conn Carroll at rightwing Washington Examiner:  "I don't think BLS cooked numbers. I think a bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs. That would have same effect."

Mark Levin:  "Pre-election farce." Stuart Varney on Fox: "Oh how convenient...five weeks before the election..." John Brabender, former Santorum aide, on CNN says they are "gaming the numbers."

Romney claims "this is not what a real recovery looks like."  Notes fewer jobs created in Sept than in Aug--though those numbers could also be revised upward.  In general, GOPers mad that unemployment down. 

Here's the new numbers (full report):  114K jobs created in September, unemployment down to 7.8%.  Well at least they will force GOPers to re-do some ads.  Also: Aug Payrolls Revised To +142K From +96, another good sign--and reveals needless pundit hand-wringing then.   July revised up to 181,000.  And September showed first PUBLIC jobs sector gain in a long time.

Ron Fournier of the National Journal claims that with jobs report Obama "wins week" despite debate flop.  I'm not so sure (see below).  GOPers now attacking Fournier for that claim anyway.  David Corn on past jobs number revised upward:  "I assume Romney campaign will retract all those press releases it sent out a month ago."

Earlier:  Oh my, here we are again on make-or-break monthly jobs report day.  Voters don't care one bit about jobs report, as proven last month and over and over, yet the experts and pundits--as I've chronicled here--always hype it as boosting and hurting Obama.   Polls show otherwise, most dramatically last month when he only surged after it came out (the weak report was supposed to kill any post-DNC bounce).  So here we go again today.  Numbers any minute.


Anonymous said...

The Obama who just starred in his own convention and the Obama who just got his rear handed to him by Romney are very different Obamas. The latter might not be able to digest a bad employment numbers so handily.

Denny Smith said...

Jack Welch fate was to be a garden-variety ideologue. Who would have guessed? What a waste of oxygen.

Jason Sonnenfelt said...

Someone please explain how the employment surveys are conducted to that poor Examiner writer.


Anonymous said...

Jack Welch is still alive? Who cares? The sound you hear is the last dying gasps of the people like Mr. Welch who helped bring you the latest recession.

Senator Blutarsky said...

Conservatives (of whom I am one) dismayed by the misleadingly bullish headline unemployment number should focus less on the probability that the numbers were cooked, which is quite low, and more on the probability of mean reversion in the November number, which is high.

And they should really avoid associating their own credibility with that of Jack Welch, who in his own memoir offered evidence that GE routinely engaged in what in boardrooms is called “earnings management,” and out of boardrooms is called “fraud.”