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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Thursday Poll Hits

UPDATE #2  New Gallup report just up at 1 pm: After good news for Obama yesterday, today finds Romney retaking lead among likely voters and cut Obama's lead among reg voters to just 2%.  But Obama still has strong 52% approval.

Gallup also notes that Biden's favorable rating is only 44%--and Ryan's 43%.

New PPP poll gives Warren 6% lead in Mass.

UPDATE #1 Well, we predicted Romney "bounce" ended last weekend now more proof:  today's Rasmussen tracker now puts Obama back in lead, plus one, giving him 2% pickup since yesterday and 3% from day before. 

Chuck Todd just cited new NBC poll--only 6%-7% say debates influenced who they favor.  And as you'll see below, very little post-debate change in race in three key swing states.   Also, among early voters in Ohio, 63% back Obama.

A new NYT/Quinnipiac "swing state" poll finding surprisingly little post-debate movement, with the fairly good jobs report balancing the Obama floperoo in the debate.  He maintains slim lead in Wisc. Va. and tied in Colo.  One change:  Romney's backers now like him more. Plus:  same poll has Tammy Baldwin up 2% in Wisc. and Tim Kaine up 7% in Virginia (a consistent finding in nearly all polls).

See new overall assessment by Nate Silver--who got the "Nerd" treatment on "The Daily Show" last night. 

The latest NBC/WSJ/Marist poll snuck up on us around midnight.  It found that Dems Sen. Sherrod Brown and Sen. Bill Nelson still hold wide leads in Ohio and Fla., while Sen. Tim Kaine in Va. has seen his lead over George Allen sink to single point.   It also found Romney taking the lead by 1% in Virginia, closing to within a point in Fla., but still losing by 6% in Ohio.  Even Romney's Va. and Fla. hikes were very small.

And a WDIV poll in Michigan out tonight still finds Obama in front by 6.7%.   Meanwhile, he still leads by 8% in Penna.

For those who say racism dead in America: rather stark number from Fox poll finds Obama getting all of 35% support from whites in poll (not that this is mainly racism, but still). The poll gives Romney a 1% edge, where it found Obama leading by 5% in previous.   Since this is Fox, we get this question: "Which candidate relies more on Teleprompter?"  Naturally, they choose Obama, 49%-18%. 

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