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Monday, October 22, 2012

Poll Dancing for Monday

UPDATE #3  ABC/Wash Post just out with it's first "daily tracking" poll.  It gives Obama a 1% national lead.  But a 7% lead among reg voters.  Among the details: He's up 14% with women and down 12% with men.   In nine  battleground states he now trails Romney by 4%, a switch from last month (but also not consistent with most other polls).  Note:  Obama leads, sometimes easily, in how he would handle almost every issue, raising question of why he is not leading by nice margin.  Couldn't be racial, right?

UPDATE #2  Gallup's daily tracker out at 1 p.m. and finds Obama gaining a point among likely voters to "only" trail by 6%.  Also picked up 2% among reg voters so now only trails by 1%.

NBC/WSJ/Telemundo poll: Obama 70, Romney 25 among likely Latino voters; enthusiasm up to 68% vs. 59% in September.  Romney has "image problem."  Vote split in Florida, however, due to high Cuban population.

UPDATE #1  Lengthy Nate Silver take on the race today, finding Obama still in good shape, for now, in the key states, so still a 2-1 favorite to win in the stupid Electoral College.  Nate agrees with me that there has been no "bounce" for Obama after the debate, which he clearly won.  We wonder why.  It's possible he blew it so badly in the first debate--and Biden's mocking performance didn't help--that he locked about 48% in solidly for Romney now until Election Day.

New Quinnipac/CBS poll has Obama still up 5% in Ohio, though this is down from 10% in previous poll.   Muhlenberg poll in PA  also gives Obama 5% lead, easing some concerns for him.  

Politco/GWU poll gives Romney 2% edge nationwide, a 3% gain, but fair amount of poll from before last week's debate.  Also:  they give him 7% edge among the very extremely no doubt certainly will vote voters--same as Gallup's "likely voter" model.  Rasmussen, if you care, today shows Romney maintaining same 2% lead he had before the latest debate.  In fact, I have seen no evidence anywhere that Obama got any "bounce" expected after that debate.

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