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Thursday, October 11, 2012

Post-Debate Poll Reactions--and CNN's 'Skew'

As with the prez debate, I will be following very closely, mainly on the only two "scientific" polls.  Also, here is NYT fact-check site.  And Think Progress with 24 untruths from Ryan.

UPDATE #4  This does not reflect post-debate results, but today's Gallup tracker adds one point to Romney's lead among likely voters, to 49% to 47%.  But this 7-day poll will lose the major part of the post-debate bounce Romney got tomorrow,  so stay tuned.

UPDATE #3  CNN refusing to release "internals" on its ORG debate poll--after controversy surrounded last week's poll.  Are they admitting (even more than they have) the poor selection of sample? In the smallest of small type on their site they note, "the sample of debate watchers is about eight points more Republican than an average CNN poll of all Americans, so the respondents were more Republican than the general public."  Yet they did not mention this is hyping results last night and today on the air.

UPDATE #2  CNN on their site just admitted that the sample for their poll (which found Ryan winning 48%-44%) was "a debate audience that was more Republican than the country."  Sample was 33% GOP and 31% Dem.  CNN spokesman:  "That indicates that the sample of debate watchers is more Republican than an average of recent CNN polls of all Americans." Indeed, every major national poll always slightly samples a few more Dems than Repubs because there are more registered Dems nationally than GOPers.

I'm not normally a "skewed poll" guy but CNN has now twice admitted its debate polls "skewed"--it didn't get much attention last week because wide margin.  They release that on their site about an hour after trumpeting poll results on the air with no qualifiers beyond usual margin of error.  In other words, few people see that.  They ought to fix their methods of drawing sample--that is, who they are calling--or mention out front the makeup of the sample.  The rest of the media simply take the topline poll result and run with it for the next day--"Ryan won."

UPDATE #1  The key "instant poll" from CBS:  among 500 undecided voters who watched the debate,  Biden wins 50% to 31%.   (Romney had won easily last week.)   Asked who they could relate to,  Biden won; he also was seen as more ready to be president.  Some 85% said Biden knowledgeable and 75% said this of Ryan.

Internals just released show that 58% of the sample called themselves "Independents."

CNN/ORC  instant poll of registered voters gives Ryan the win by 48%-44%.  But only 381 surveyed so a high 5% margin of error.  So CNN hosts called it a "draw."

I had warned during the debate Ryan would do better than you might think, due to Biden "laughing" etc.  Yes, GOPers and Fox going overboard on that--Karl Rove just called Biden "unhinged"-- but did affect folks in middle, I suspect. Biden, like Clint Eastwood, was basically talking to an empty chair and should have left it at that.

Detail from CNN poll:  "Who Was More Likeable? Ryan 53% Biden 43%."  "Who Was More In Touch With Problems of People Like You? Ryan 51%, Biden 44%."  
 
CNN's focus group divided evenly.  An MSNBC focus group went for Biden.   CNBC poll that showed Ryan winning that Romney and rightwingers are  touting is a totally unscientific online voting, laughable.  Here's Nate Silver's analysis.

Note:  If you're a campaign nut, check out my award-winning book, "The Campaign of the Century."  Featured at NPR this week and at The New Yorker last month.

2 comments:

Patricia said...

We all know where CNN is heading!

Bill Schlosser said...

You are such a liberal idiot... You don't think CBS's poll was HUGELY SKEWED in favor of Democrats being polled??? You'll see how screwed up the "polls" are come Nov 6th - I'm gonna do the BIDEN LAUGH at all the dumb liberals who think for one minute this president has done his job the last 4 years.

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