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Sunday, October 7, 2012

Rasmussen: Romney 'Bounce' Over?

Sunday:  Nate Silver tonight confirms my sense, below, that Romney's bounce is ending.  He analyzes four national polls from today and concludes that the bounce might peak at +2.9%, though that's by no means certain.  It might keep bouncing--or drop if the Friday jobs report matter (it hasn't much, in the past).

Gallup's daily 1 p.m. report on its tracker, which averages seven days and now includes two full days post-debate:  No gain at all today for Romney, after he had climbed to within 3%.   Obama's approval, however, continued to fall, down to 48%. 

Well, the Romney bump (see below) may be history.  Rasmussen just now announced that the numbers had not changed since yesterday--Mitt with 2% lead--and this poll is first to include all three days of the post-debate.  Maybe the Friday jobs numbers report kicked in.  Rasmussen calls the overall bounce "modest."  In any case, it's still the only "major" poll to give Romney a lead...  Post-debate poll in Colorado shows Obama still holding 4% lead.  

Saturday:   We noted below some gains for Romney in national polls--though that did not show up in Ipsos today--and now the state polls are coming in.  Some are from GOP pollsters and can be set aside by PPP now finds Romney within 2% in Wisconsin.  That's a gain of 5% since before the debates.

Rasmussen just reported, finally, a nice bounce for Romney out of debate in its daily poll, with the GOPer now leading Obama by 2%, after trailing by 2% before the debate.  Of course, Rasmussen is always GOP-leaning.

But now, at 1 p.m., Gallup shows Romney cutting lead from 5% to 3%.  And its poll so far reflects only two post-debate days in its 7-day average.   It's "favorable" poll is based on only a 3-day average, and Obama has lost 4 points there in the past two days, down to 50%.  

Friday:  Gallup's daily 1 p.m. report out and it shows a 1% gain for Obama since yesterday, to 50%-45%.  This is their first poll since the debate, and since it's a 7-day average it only includes one full day of post-debate polling.  Still:  Obama did gain a point.   Did lose 2% of approval but still strong 52%. 

We observed yesterday that GOP-leaning Rasmussen Poll reported yesterday that Obama maintained same  2% lead over Romney, even though at least a small part of his sample included folks called after the big debate.  Probably didn't mean that much.

But just a few minutes ago, Rasmussen reported latest, with lead STILL at 2%, even though one-third of sample now post-debate.   He uses a three-day average so full impact still two days away.  UPDATE  Rasmussen daily "swing state" poll (eleven states) found Obama losing only one point, and still at comfortable 50%-45%.   More:  His new poll gives Tim Kaine 7% bulge over George Allen in Virginia.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Note that Obama's approval ratings up 1% to 50%