Sunday: Nate Silver tonight confirms my sense, below, that Romney's bounce is ending. He analyzes four national polls from today and concludes that the bounce might peak at +2.9%, though that's by no means certain. It might keep bouncing--or drop if the Friday jobs report matter (it hasn't much, in the past).
Gallup's daily 1 p.m. report on its tracker, which averages seven days and now includes two full days post-debate: No gain at all today for Romney, after he had climbed to within 3%. Obama's approval, however, continued to fall, down to 48%.
Well, the Romney bump (see below) may be history. Rasmussen just now announced that the numbers had not changed since yesterday--Mitt with 2% lead--and this poll is first to include all three days of the post-debate. Maybe the Friday jobs numbers report kicked in. Rasmussen calls the overall bounce "modest." In any case, it's still the only "major" poll to give Romney a lead... Post-debate poll in Colorado shows Obama still holding 4% lead.
Saturday: We noted below some gains for Romney in national polls--though that did not show up in Ipsos today--and now the state polls are coming in. Some are from GOP pollsters and can be set aside by PPP now finds Romney within 2% in Wisconsin. That's a gain of 5% since before the debates.
Rasmussen just reported, finally, a nice bounce for Romney out of debate in its daily poll, with the GOPer now leading Obama by 2%, after trailing by 2% before the debate. Of course, Rasmussen is always GOP-leaning.
But now, at 1 p.m., Gallup shows Romney cutting lead from 5% to 3%. And its poll so far reflects only two post-debate days in its 7-day average. It's "favorable" poll is based on only a 3-day average, and Obama has lost 4 points there in the past two days, down to 50%.
Friday: Gallup's daily 1 p.m. report out and it shows a 1% gain for Obama since yesterday, to 50%-45%. This is their first poll since the debate, and since it's a 7-day average it only includes one full day of post-debate polling. Still: Obama did gain a point. Did lose 2% of approval but still strong 52%.
We observed yesterday that GOP-leaning Rasmussen Poll reported yesterday that Obama maintained same 2% lead over Romney, even though at least a small part of his sample included folks called after the big debate. Probably didn't mean that much.
But just a few minutes ago, Rasmussen reported latest, with lead STILL at 2%, even though one-third of sample now post-debate. He uses a three-day average so full impact still two days away. UPDATE Rasmussen daily "swing state" poll (eleven states) found Obama losing only one point, and still at comfortable 50%-45%. More: His new poll gives Tim Kaine 7% bulge over George Allen in Virginia.
Sunday, October 7, 2012
Rasmussen: Romney 'Bounce' Over?
is author of a dozen books (click on covers at right), including the new "THE TUNNELS: Escapes Under the Berlin Wall and the Historic Films the JFK White House Tried to Kill." He was the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Twitter: @GregMitch