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Sunday, October 21, 2012

Poll Dancing, Weekend Updates

UPDATE #5  Gallup daily tracker gives Romney a point back from yesterday, and back up to 7%, also gains in reg voters.  Obama bounce from debate seems absent. 

UPDATE #4  Sunday  New NBC/Marist poll just out finds the race tied among likely voters (a gain of 3% for Romney since the last one),  at 47%-47%, although Obama still with 5% lead among reg. voters.   (Bush and Kerry were also tied at this stage, they note.)  It also finds Obama only leading Romney among women by 8%.   The poll was taken in the days following the latest debate so any Obama "bump" would seem to be part of it, if indeed it exists. 

UPDATE #3 Saturday   New Gallup just out, which now includes three days post-debate in its 7-day average:  No good news for Obama, as still trails by 6% in likely voters, and lost a point both in approval and with registered voters.

UPDATE #2 Friday  New Gallup daily, at 1 p.m.:  Obama cuts Romney lead among likely voters from 7% to 6%.  Now in its 7-day average it includes two post-debate days.

UPDATE #1   Some good news for Obama in today's Rasmussen tracker.  Romney's 2% lead has now disappeared and they two candidates are back to dead even, since the latest debate.   And two NBC/Marist polls give Obama nice leads in Iowa and Wisconsin. 

Earlier:  Fresh off his "Daily Show" appearance, Nate Silver at NYT just out with piece that may calm the many Dems a bit freaked by the recent Gallup polls showing an ever-widening lead for Romney--to 7% today.  I noted that today's tally includes only one day after the most recent debate in its seven day average, plus Obama's approval rating went up to a healthy 50% today, and that's in a three-day average so the post-debate period a bigger factor.  But Nate goes much further:
...its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls.

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