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Saturday, October 27, 2012

Weekend Poll Updates

SUNDAY  7 p.m.  PPP just now reported Obama by 4% in Ohio.  Had race even last time they checked.

New Reuters-IPSOS poll gives Obama a 3% lead nationally.  New PPP puts Obama up 2% in N.H. (he was down one previously).

Today's 1 pm. Gallup marks a better day for Obama.  He gained a point among likely voters to trail by 4%,  took the lead again among reg voters by 1%, and gained 2 points in approval to 48%.

 Believe it or not, Omaha newspaper poll has Bob Kerrey, long considered the longest of longshots, within 3% of Deb Fischer--and another polls puts it at 2.5%.   And new Wash Post poll has Tim Kaine up 7% vs. George Allen.

Philadelphia Inquirer poll has Obama maintaining 6% lead in that state despite big Romney push.

Saturday UPDATE #2  Big one from Wash Post:  Obama with 51%-47% lead in Virginia.  As noted previously, if he wins there, Ohio becomes academic, likely.

Nate Silver at NYT (posted at 5 p.m.) continues to predict Obama win--now with rising 74% odds--despite national polls going against, in the main, still.  Reason? If anything, his lead swing states is growing or holding firm. 

UPDATE #1 The 1 p.m. daily Gallup tracker is out and it shows no change at all in the race, among likely voters (Romney +5) and reg voters (even),  but Obama's plunge in approval rating continues.  Just a few days ago he was at peak of 53% and now has declined to 46%.  This is a three-day poll so, if accurate, one would have to wonder what was going on Wed-Thurs-Fri.  

Earlier: Okay, here we go again.  Early Saturday we have new PPP showing candidates dead even nationally, and morning Rasmussen tracker boosting Romney back to a 4% lead.   CNN polls finds Obama maintaining steady 4% lead in Ohio.

BTW, last night on Bill Maher's show, Nate Silver repeated his estimate of an Obama, with 75% odds. This, of course, is based on his continuing lead in most key swing states.  So will Romney win popular vote and Obama electoral college?  Surprisingly, he placed the odds on this at only 7%.   He also said this is the biggest racial split yet in any presidential race.

Yes, amazingly, new poll finds Todd Akin close to Claire McCaskill in Missouri. 

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