Saturday, October 27, 2012
Weekend Poll Updates
New Reuters-IPSOS poll gives Obama a 3% lead nationally. New PPP puts Obama up 2% in N.H. (he was down one previously).
Today's 1 pm. Gallup marks a better day for Obama. He gained a point among likely voters to trail by 4%, took the lead again among reg voters by 1%, and gained 2 points in approval to 48%.
Believe it or not, Omaha newspaper poll has Bob Kerrey, long considered the longest of longshots, within 3% of Deb Fischer--and another polls puts it at 2.5%. And new Wash Post poll has Tim Kaine up 7% vs. George Allen.
Philadelphia Inquirer poll has Obama maintaining 6% lead in that state despite big Romney push.
Saturday UPDATE #2 Big one from Wash Post: Obama with 51%-47% lead in Virginia. As noted previously, if he wins there, Ohio becomes academic, likely.
Nate Silver at NYT (posted at 5 p.m.) continues to predict Obama win--now with rising 74% odds--despite national polls going against, in the main, still. Reason? If anything, his lead swing states is growing or holding firm.
UPDATE #1 The 1 p.m. daily Gallup tracker is out and it shows no change at all in the race, among likely voters (Romney +5) and reg voters (even), but Obama's plunge in approval rating continues. Just a few days ago he was at peak of 53% and now has declined to 46%. This is a three-day poll so, if accurate, one would have to wonder what was going on Wed-Thurs-Fri.
Earlier: Okay, here we go again. Early Saturday we have new PPP showing candidates dead even nationally, and morning Rasmussen tracker boosting Romney back to a 4% lead. CNN polls finds Obama maintaining steady 4% lead in Ohio.
BTW, last night on Bill Maher's show, Nate Silver repeated his estimate of an Obama, with 75% odds. This, of course, is based on his continuing lead in most key swing states. So will Romney win popular vote and Obama electoral college? Surprisingly, he placed the odds on this at only 7%. He also said this is the biggest racial split yet in any presidential race.
Yes, amazingly, new poll finds Todd Akin close to Claire McCaskill in Missouri.
is author of a dozen books (click on covers at right), including the new "THE TUNNELS: Escapes Under the Berlin Wall and the Historic Films the JFK White House Tried to Kill." He was the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Twitter: @GregMitch