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Friday, November 16, 2012

Dems Picked up 2 Seats Today But Nate Silver Says, 'Chill'

Two more House races were decided today, both in favor of Dems, bringing their net gains to 5--and they lead in the 3 races still not called.  But Nate Silver is out with a new piece warning that they are unlikely to take the House in 2014, based on history (they may need to gain 17 seats, give or take). 
One should never say never when it comes to forecasting the outcome of an election two years in advance. But it might take a major scandal in the Republican party, or for Republicans to splinter into factions, for Democrats to have more than a remote chance of winning the House.
And there is one more factor working against Democrats: they have become increasingly reliant upon voters, like Hispanics and those under the age of 30, who do not turn out reliably in midterm election years. Democrats have a broader coalition than Republicans do in high-turnout environments, so perhaps this will benefit them in 2016. But these are not the voters you would want to depend upon to make gains in midterm election years, when turnout is much lower.

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