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Monday, November 5, 2012

Next-to-Final Poll Watch

 TUESDAY  Final GWU poll for Politico finds race even at 47%.

UPDATE #3  No new column from Nate Silver tonight but he has raised odds on Obama win to 91% and adds two important tweets:  "There's been a pretty clear shift toward Obama in national polls. Based on most recent data, he may lead by 2-3% in popular vote."  And:  "Obama gained an average of 1.5 points between 12 national polls published today. Big sample sizes. That's a pretty big deal."

More:  Nate has now put Florida in Obama column, a surprise, and given North Carolina to Romney, not a surprise.  He pegs Obama electoral vote at about 315 for sure.   Silver also has Obama winning the popular vote, with 50.9 percent to Romney’s 48.2.

Note:  The first e-book on Obama-Romney race has been published--and it's mine!  "Tricks, Lies and Videotape" covers contest right up to yesterday.  Or wait for update on Wednesday.

UPDATE #2  Big one:  Final Wash Post/ABC poll puts Obama in 3%, his highest ever--and in line with Pew, which also has him at 50%.   Peggy Noonan don't mind, she's just counting the lawn signs.  Poll shows Obama gains among independents and whites.

Gallup has now posted at their site the "leaked" numbers (see below).  Confirms Obama made big gains in past week to only be 1% down (if that).   His approval has risen to 52% so it's hard to believe he will be turned out with that tide turned, so to speak.

Final Reuters-Ipsos also just out--2% lead for Obama.  

UPDATE #1  Twenty-four hours to go!  Still no new poll at the Gallup site, which has not reported in past week but started polling over the weekend. But Gallup chief Frank Newport has just leaked the results in advance:  it will show a mere 1% lead for Romney.  Gallup last had him up by 5% (even more a little earlier).  Apparently it also shows Obama with 3% edge in reg voters.

However, Gallup does report that despite all the complaints about the lies, brutal attacks and ads, 58% say they approve of the way Obama has conducted his campaign and 54% say the same about Romney.  Though maybe just the usual partisanship.

Earlier:  Just up from Nate Silver at 9:30 a.m.:  GOPers already blaming Sandy for probably Obama win.  But does theory hold up?  Yes, Obama has had strongest days of polling in recent days but he led in the key states already.  He also updates national and state polls from Sunday, showing Obama lead is real.

Today's morning Rasmussen tracker, for what it's worth, returns Romney to a 1% lead after having race tied for a couple of days.  It's now the ONLY national poll that puts him in front.  But he still has Obama up in likely electoral votes, 237-206.  He also reports this tidbit:  "Just over one-out-of-four Americans (27%) say the upcoming election has negatively affected their personal relationship with a friend or family member."

PPP now puts Obama +6 in Colorado, a gain of 2% since most recent. 

Updated AP survey of early voting gives Dems clear edge everywhere except in Colorado (where they barely trail).   Huge edge in Iowa and North Carolina.   He probably has big edge in Ohio but state does not release the breakdown of Dems and Repubs who have voted.  

NYT swing state tracker has Obama ahead in all except NC and Fla., where it's close.  The WMUR poll in NH puts Obama 3% up there as GOP desperately searches for longshot routes to victory--though PA and Minn.  Latest from Nate Silver:  odds on Obama winning up to  86.3%--highest mark since just before the first debate. Bunch of national polls all show Obama winning or at worst tied.  And swing states remain in good shape for him, mainly.

The Fix has analysis of the NBC poll and at bottom links to many other sites.  

Final USA Today poll, via Gallup, of battleground states finds a dead heat there, which is actually a 4% "surge" for Obama, they note.

1 comment:

DHRiley said...

Wonder if Nate's model considers voter fraud/suppression? FYI looks like something funny going on in Ohio: http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/15/2012/4783