Earlier: And you better not bet against him. At his NYT blog he just used some of the same stat analysis he uses to predict elections to the current Oscar race. First he charts how the major awards groups have been predictive in the past, then weights that this year and comes out with expected winners. Not too many surprises, except may in some cases who is 2nd in line. Otherwise we get the favorites others have picked: Argo, Day-Lewis, Lawrence etc. Sometimes you don't need deep analysis (as some of us even claimed in the 2012 election).
Sample: "Lincoln, once considered the front-runner, has been nominated for almost every best picture award but won none of them. Counting on a comeback would be a bit like expecting Rudolph W. Giuliani to have resurrected his campaign in Florida in 2008 after finishing in sixth place everywhere else."
And: "Anne Hathaway as about as safe a bet to win for Les Misérables as Mitt Romney was to win Utah. If Sally Field or Amy Adams wins instead, it will probably be time for me to retire from the Oscar-forecasting business."
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