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Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Scary Warning from Nate Silver

When the nerd/seer speaks you better listen, and in a new post today at the NYT site, Nate warns that that Dems could very well lose the Senate in 2014.  How is that possible given national sentiment and demographics running in their favor? 
Twenty-one of the 35 seats up for election are now held by Democrats. Moreover, most the states that will be casting ballots for the Senate in 2014 are Republican leaning: 7 of the 21 Democratic-held seats are in states carried by the former Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, while just one of the Republican seats is in a state won by President Obama.
Democrats could also suffer from the downside to presidential coattails. Most of the seats up for grabs in 2014 were last contested in 2008, a very strong Democratic year. Without having Mr. Obama on the ballot, and with an electorate that is likely to be older and whiter than in presidential years, some Democrats may find that their 2008 coattails have turned into a midterm headwind instead.
He also charts and predicts (for now) EACH race.   Doesn't hold out much hope for Ashley Judd or Dems in W. Virginia.  

 Greg Mitchell is author of more than a dozen books, including four on influential American political campaigns,  such as Obama-Romney 2012. 


Nancy Green said...

This is very concerning because Nate rules. I'm still exhausted from 2012, but we have to start now.

Anonymous said...

If the G.O.P takes the Senate and keeps the House, the President gets impeached and removed from office. That's it; they're going to do it.