"538" on That South Carolina Race

We've been waiting for Nate Silver to weigh in on the Mark Sanford--Elizabeth Colbert Busch race in South Carolina.  Still hasn't but Micah Cohen at his 538 blog at the NYT now has. Sanford "trails" her in two polls but they are not current.  Cohen reminds folks that this is a solidly GOP district but concludes that could be a surprise this year due to Sanford's "baggage," it's an off-year election (lower turnout), and his opponent has a famous brother.

Concludes:  "Ms. Colbert Busch — with a famous brother and a nonpolitical background — is an unusual candidate, and 'this is certainly a promising moment for a different kind of candidate to step forward,' said Mark Tompkins, an associate professor of political science at the University of South Carolina.  But the First District is still heavily Republican. The close race in 2008 took place in a presidential election year and amid a national Democratic wave.  Ms. Colbert Busch has a chance, but she 'still has to run an almost flawless campaign,' Mr. Oldendick said."  NOTE:  Earlier version of this post had Silver penning the story, not Cohen.  Apologies.