Updating often as Warnock and Ossoff fight for Senate seats in Jan. 5 election. My credentials? Author of a dozen books including four on elections, such as The Campaign of the Century, on Upton Sinclair's race for governor of California in 1934--recently picked as one of the five best books ever on an election by Wall Street Journal. Twitter: @gregmitch
January 6 (Wednesday)
9:50 Hey, Joe: Yes, Manchin may be bad, but try to face reality: 1) he could have switched parties long ago because 2) WVA is now the most rabid pro-Trump state in the nation 3) his voting record as tabulated by progressives is far to the "left" of any GOPer (except for Susan Collins).
9:10 Trump Agonistes Just tweeted, "They just happened to find 50,000 ballots late last night. The USA is embarrassed by fools. Our Election Process is worse than that of third world countries!"
8:50 As I was saying.... I did point out that although pollsters had rough November they did do well in Georgia races then--and predicted they would be on the money now, and they were. Also, I defended the much-maligned NY Times "needle" on election night--and again, it got it right.
8:40 Defund, defund, defund? Warnock and Ossoff strongly objected to "defund the police" as slogan.
8:30 Devils kicked out of Georgia Warnock race officially called, Ossoff also by some but up 16,000 with mainly Dem votes out there. Only question will be if requires runoff and the usual Repub claims of fraud, etc.
8:05 Axe smaller James Carville suggests former GA Gov. Lester Maddox--famous for grabbing axe to literally or symbolically threaten blacks--is rolling over in his grave with election of a black and Jew in his state.
January 5 (Tuesday)
11:00 Warnock wins, Ossoff on the way Overwhelming majority of votes out there are heavy Dem areas.
10:00 As expected: From Trump, "Looks like they are setting up a big 'voter dump' against the Republican candidates. Waiting to see how many votes they need?"
9:30 Doctor Yes. Jon Ossoff’s wife not taking election day off and going in for her overnight as an OBGYN.
8:25: Good signs for Dems From all reports, turnout down a bit for Repubs and up for Dems, early voting shows Dem gains over Biden in most counties, pair of victories may be on the way.
6:20: Voting picks up a bit Finally some reports of longer lines as 7 pm near, a few places have asked for closing a bit late. Long line, for example, at one site in heavily GOP Cherokee County.
5:30 Hailing DeKalb: CNN confirms claim that vote in that Dem stronghold of DeKalb has already topped the November vote.
5:10 First exit polls. Of course, are they worth much, given most vote was not today? CNN out with this:
Atlanta Suburbs:
Ossoff-50% Perdue-48%
Atlanta Metro Ossoff-79% Perdue-19%
Was the 2020 presidential election in GA conducted fairly? Yes: 56% No: 41%
4:55 Kornacki in the house: NBC's vote watcher just tweeted, "I’m heading to the studio and I won’t leave until we have a result." Poor Steve if this takes three days, or weeks. Let's see his travel bag with supply of slacks and ties. Leslie Jones on notice! John King already at the board.
4:45 Mail delays? Not sure how to judge this, but new from Salon: "USPS delays threaten to disenfranchise Atlanta-area voters: The state received more than 38,000 mail ballots last weekend, suggesting tens of thousands are still in transit — as many as 400,000 have not been returned."
4:30 They are worried: Perdue and Loeffler campaigns just released joint statement hailing high turnout in GOP areas but saying result will be razor thin and those who vote in next few hours (polls close at 7 ET) will decide it. In fact, GOP turnout appears to steady but not the surge needed--and Dem turnout also steady.... NYT election needles up!
4:15 When vote count begins: This is the official Georgia state page. Note: state says 17,000 military and foreign votes have not come in yet and they have until Friday.
3:30 Madea on the run: From NYT just now: "Tyler Perry, whose Madea franchise has made him among the wealthiest stars in Hollywood, hopped a flight from Wyoming to Georgia late Monday to vote in person after failing to receive an absentee ballot. 'All right, my absentee ballot never came, so I just left voting in person, so y’all get out and vote, get out and vote, get out and vote,' Mr. Perry said while sitting in his car outside an unidentified polling place in a selfie video posted on Twitter on Tuesday afternoon."
3:15 Turn out or Tune Out? Lot of anecdotes but little hard data on turnout today with the biggest focus on much-needed GOP surge. But from what seems to be true--Dem voting (such as in DeKalb) seems fairly strong while Repubs not exactly swamping the polls--so the main takeaway so far is--few long lines anywhere which may suggest ultimate Dem win.
2:45 A winner by 1 a.m.? I noted earlier that a new rule that allows the 3 million early votes to get processed quicker may help the count go faster. Then there is the matter of far fewer races to tally. New comment here from NYT: "The new rule allows counties 'to essentially do everything except hit the button to print off the total,' said David Worley, the sole Democratic member of the State Election Board. If all goes smoothly, Mr. Worley said, 'I would think we would have a pretty good idea' who won by 1 a.m. Wednesday."
2:05 First Trump panic tweet and a Sterling Response: "Reports are coming out of the 12th Congressional District of Georgia that Dominion Machines are not working in certain Republican Strongholds for over an hour. Ballots are being left in lock boxes, hopefully they count them." Newly famous Gabriel Sterling then replied in a semi-mocking tweet: "And this issue in Columbia Co. was resolved hours ago and our office informed the public about it in real time. The votes of everyone will be protected and counted. Sorry you received old intel Mr. President."
1:35 Turnout so-so Update from AJC: "Voters experienced few lines Tuesday morning and turnout appeared to be lower than on Election Day in the presidential election, said Gabriel Sterling, the state’s voting system manager. Average wait times were between one and five minutes in most areas, with the longest waits reaching 30 minutes in Cobb and DeKalb counties in metro Atlanta, he said. 'It’s easy, it’s simple, and there isn’t a line right now,' Sterling said. 'No big long lines, no big issues.'”
1:05 p.m. Parties for one: A sure sign of how Dems see the pace of the vote count going tonight--neither candidate has planned a "victory" party of any sort, as they know most of Dem vote will come in later. But GOP, of course, is planning gatherings as they no doubt plan to declare win early on, as per Trump. A midnight pain in Georgia.
11:35 Good sign: GOP "vote surge"....slow? Beau Evans of the Georgia Press Assn. tweets: "I dropped by a few polling places in Dalton, Georgia, where President Trump held a rally last night — didn’t see any lines out the door on Election Day for the U.S. Senate runoffs." NYT, on the other hand, later finds big turnout in Dem areas--but also in Dalton.
11:10 Poll dancing New piece at NYT says analysis of early voting indicates "nail biter" results. And, yes, the Times will be using its embattled "needle" online to anticipate who is ahead..... Nate Silver at 538.com did final wrap-up, claiming the Dems very slightly ahead in average of respected polls but he has not done the fuller deep dive to really make a prediction. He repeated that the outcome could indeed be split. His final polling averages: Ossoff +1.8, Warnock +2.1.
10:20 The things to watch, from Atlanta Journal Constitution: Good rundown here. It starts with whether Trump voters will turn out or stay home because vote "rigged." I have always doubted this and still do, especially with the GOP state officials who are slamming Trump on fraud claims and his now-infamous weekend phone call but using this to literally beg voters (i.e. mainly Trumpers) to overcome doubts and vote. A Dem benchmark: 30/30. That is, getting 30% of black vote and with black turnout coming to at least 30% of state number overall. Finally, sadly: "This week will tell us whether the ritual of conceding elections in Georgia will remain an important part of unifying the electorate or whether admitting defeat, no matter how painful, has become a relic of the past."
9:55 Gathering threats Lot of worries of election day dangers on top of the usual vote suppression in minority areas. For example: "The Cherokee County Sheriff’s Office said Sunday that it learned of a threatening email that went to several county employees 'regarding threats to polling locations on election day.' Employees at several other counties received the same email." But a staffer at Stacey Abrams' Fair Fight later cautioned: "While there have been isolated and vague threats to specific polling locations, the aim of these threats is to spread fear statewide, including through the media. Unless you believe that voters are in immediate danger, we advise that you do not take the bait. These threats are an intentional form of voter suppression. We encourage you to call out voter suppression in post-election reporting, but not report about it today in a way that will deter folks from voting.”
Meanwhile, Democracy Now! claims that 198,000 voters were illegally purged from the rolls.
9:05 a.m. Another late late night By official count, a shade over 3 million, but with the GOP surge on today's voting, and with the more conservative parts of state reporting first, expect the Repubs to break into nice lead, like Trump in November, setting up a repeat of "vote dumping" late in middle of night.....But AJC points out: "Still, a rule change could speed up the process. A new State Election Board decision required county elections staffers to begin processing absentee ballots last week by requiring them to verify signatures on the envelope of mail-in ballots and scanning them in."
8:55 Trump announced today that Perdue has joined the Tawdry 13 who will vote to not certify his defeat, but one problem: Ex.-Sen. Perdue's term has expired and he can't vote this week even if he wins because any victory will not be certified. Only way he could vote is if Gov. Kemp briefly appoints him to the seat. Could happen.
8:50 a.m. Obama tweets: "Georgia, this is it. Today is Election Day and your vote can help elect @ReverendWarnock and Jon @Ossoff to the U.S. Senate. Make your voice heard today and vote—either in person or by dropping off your mail-in ballot at a ballot drop box." Hillary: "Today's Senate runoff elections will help determine how far the Biden administration can go to provide COVID relief, put people back to work, and help Americans through one of the toughest periods in our history. Georgia, we’re all counting on you."
January 4 (Monday)
Trump rally: Typical Trump rant/speech for well over an hour and mainly devoted to his own election, not the two senators. Did call up Loeffler for very brief comments. Also new Rep. "Qanon" Greene, at which point Fox finally cut away until she was done....The usual labeling of Warnock as radical/socialist/anti-military/anti-police and etc. etc.
With 3 you get Trump rolled: Fun moment from Biden speech. “Thank you for electing me and Kamala. We won. Three times here. These recounts, you know what I mean? We should count them as three states. We won three times.” Ossoff called Perdue and Loeffler the new "Bonnie and Clyde" for profiting off their positions and even Covid.
Cook's Tour: Respected political analyst Charlie Cook still finds races a toss-up: “Private polling from both parties, in addition to scant public polling, puts both races as a coin toss within the margin of error. It’s impossible to know how much the president’s latest temper tantrum will impact the Election Day turnout Republicans badly need. Still, GOP sources in the state certainly don’t think it will help. Early voting topped 3 million votes — already making this the highest turnout Georgia runoff ever. Democrats are encouraged by that strong turnout, which shows the numbers outpacing even Election Day totals in key demographics, particularly among Black voters and younger voters…
“The total early vote was 23 percent lower than the same period in the general election, and one GOP source predicts that if the day of vote sees that same drop, it’s not good for them.”
No comment: Nearly $500 million has been spent on advertising, according to AdImpact, an advertising tracking firm, saturating the airwaves at previously unheard-of levels.
Perdue defends: David
Perdue on Fox calls phone call "disgusting" --well, the fact it was
leaked. "Shocked." Then says lot of substance to what Trump and "no
different from what he has said the past two months." Claims will have
no effect on the runoffs.
Rallies Set: Trump and Biden head to GA for Monday rallies. Harris already there for rally last night in Savannah. Of course, in wake of Trump's phone call (see outraged responses below), it's not known if Loeffler will say anything or perhaps try to keep a little distance, though not likely. Perdue still Covid limited. Trump has already vowed to talk mainly about his "evidence" of vote fraud and probably will double down after phone call, with barely a mention of the GOP candidates. Stay tuned...
Young and Daily Growin': NYT looks at how youth vote for Dems has been organized around TikTok and texts and etc.
January 3 (Sunday)
Trump Threatens Georgia Official: It's the story of the day--recording of insane Trump call to Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger begging him to "find" the votes to overturn Biden win in the state and repeating numerous conspiracy theories, while promising actions if this does not happen. Surely a felony in there somewhere. Wash Post story is getting most of the links. And updated by posting full hour-long tape. Shades of the Ukraine phone call: "So look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state.” This guarantees Trump must self-pardon within next two weeks. Easily an impeachable offense if happened earlier.
Michael Bromwich, former Justice Dept. IG: "Unless there are portions of the tape that somehow negate criminal intent, 'I just want to find 11,780 votes' and his threats against Raffensperger and his counsel violate 52 U.S. Code § 20511. His best defense would be insanity."
Sen. Dick Durbin: "...more than a pathetic, rambling, delusional rant. His disgraceful effort to intimidate an elected official into deliberately changing and misrepresenting the legally confirmedvote totals in his state strikes at the heart of our democracy and merits nothing less than a criminal investigation. The President is unhinged and dangerous." Rep. Hank Johnson of GA: "In fact, it is a violation of state and federal law. Tomorrow, I will introduce a resolution of Censure. Trump should resign NOW!"
Rep. AOC: “I absolutely think it's an impeachable offense and if it was up to me, there would be articles on the floor, quite quickly." David Jolly, former GOP congressman: "Convene the new House Judiciary Committee, play the tape, take an up or down vote on impeachment.
This week @SpeakerPelosi."
Imagine the dozens of similar calls we know nothing about. Preet Bahara: "Everyone who has a tape of Trump abusing his power should release it now." Even the far from hot-wired Sen. Tim Kaine: “This is fundamentally an effort to overthrow the government of the United States.” Carl Bernstein: "worse than Watergate...the ultimate smoking gun tape....In any other conceivable moment in US history, this tape would result in the leadership of both parties demanding the immediate resignation of the President of the United States."
Dan Rather: "The audio of Trump with the Georgia secretary of state: Wow. It’s like telling the Nixon tapes to hold my beer.” John Harwood on CNN just now: Trump pressure on call "either because he is crazy or corrutpt." Ron Brownstein: "Biden’s determination to downplay the mounting Trump efforts to overturn the election, and the growing number of Rs enlisting in that effort, fits his campaign message but dangerously minimizes the risk coalescing to American democracy at this moment."
GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger: "This is absolutely appalling. To every member of Congress considering objecting to the election results, you cannot--in light of this-- do so with a clean conscience."
Alexander Vindman: "I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. @realDonaldTrump is corrupt and this call fits a pattern of corruption. In time investigators will uncover a series of 'perfect' calls. Priority 1 will be uncovering corruption and protecting democracy."
Jake Tapper: "The president in this audio issues all sorts of veiled and not-so-veiled threats against the Georgia Secretary of State to submit what would be a false vote count and reverse the election result. It is sickening." Joy Reid: "...sounding like a deteriorating, mad dictator." Jim Sciutto: "This is what authoritarianism looks like, even if Trump is woefully bad at it." CNN's Brian Stelter: "They've turned the English language upside down. They say they're trying to save democracy while undermining democracy. They say 'Stop the Steal' while starting the steal." Nick Kristof: "It's a historical documentation of a president trying to steal an election." Neal Kaytel: "Sore (criminal) loser." Howard Fineman: "This is sick, criminal and dangerous. We have seen NOTHING like this from a president in our history! There has to be some punishment besides losing."
James Fallows: "To underscore the obvious, this tape is incomparably more disqualifying than 1974 tapes, whose court-ordered release led to Nixon’s resignation. Which also led to a delegation of senior GOP Sens/Reps to tell Nixon he must step down. Contrast that w current situation." Lawrence O'Donnell: "Trump got on the phone in the White House yesterday with the intention of committing a federal crime & the intention of pardoning himself for that crime. He'll also probably pardon everyone in the room who conspired with him in committing that crime." Michael Beschloss: "May God bless American public servants who stand up to illicit secret pressure from an American President." Daniel Goldman: “It’s gonna be costly to you. I’ve charged extortion in mob cases with similar language."
Mike Birbiglia: "That taped phone call feels like a single cockroach on the rug that indicates there are a lot more in the walls."
From the right: Even Byron York: "Trump steps way over the line in call to Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger. Will be interesting to see if story causes some House & Senate Republicans to re-think their effort on his behalf." Even Ari Fleischer: "Pretty much everything the President said on this call was wrong, factually and morally. And good for Georgia Secretary of State Raffensperger." Jonah Goldberg: "This tape of the Trump phone call is amazing. Unless you’re drunk on the Kool Aid, it’s glaringly obvious they just want to cheat. That’s it. Nothing clever. Nothing about patriotism or some higher calling. They’re just trying to cheat." Bill Kristol: "If we had two responsible parties, there'd be a statement now from Pelosi, McCarthy, McConnell and Schumer stating that--whatever Donald Trump says--all public officials should obey the law and Congress will ensure a peaceful and lawful transfer of power to President-elect Biden."
Andrew Sullivan: "It’s still hard to absorb a president openly seeking to destroy the heart of our democracy. But listen to this delusional madman. Impeach him again." Eric Boehlert: "we’ve had a sociopath as president for 4 yrs and every newsroom in America was too afraid to say so."
Sarah Cooper, get right on this! Especially the parts where Trump twice calls himself a "schmuck" (for endorsing Gov. Kemp). George Takei: "Georgia knows, you can’t spell impeach without peach."
#
Rallies On: Trump and Biden and Harris head to GA for Monday rallies. Preview of Trump's challenge here as GOP in disarray and fighting.
Poll Dancing: Nate Silver notes that seveal pollsters who have seemed to lean GOP in past now showing good numbers for the Dems in GA races now. Latest from Atlas Intel: Ossoff 51.3, Perdue 47.0; Warnock 51.1 Loeffler 46.9. Sample size: 1,688.
Votes in: Final early vote tally topped 3 million but won't be tallied until after 7 pm on Tuesday. Buckle up.
Old pal Stevie Van Zandt: "There’s only one way this new year will be a good year. It’s up to you Georgia!"
December 31 (Thursday)
Perdue in quarantine The senator's team announced this afternoon that he had come in close contact with someone on his campaign who had tested positive Covid (almost inevitable for any Republican, it seems) and so had to take himself off the campaign trail with just six days left before the polls open. Perdue and wife have both tested negative so far. Trump arrives on Monday and one assumes--if protocols followed--that Perdue may not be there.
Today's numbers By this morning, over 2.8 million early votes submitted. Today is the last day for this in some counties, while others are done. Georgia election expert Stephen Fowler updates: "Black turnout as a percentage of total early voters is up from the general - driven by rural SW GA where Dems have invested $$$ and people. GOP-friendly white turnout is lower than general, especially in NW GA." Adds: "It would take a pretty strong Election Day turnout in NE GA (and other Republican-friendly areas) to catch up to Dem lead."
Early voting rattles GOP So says The New York Times in new piece featured on home page. “We’re fully aware of the energy on the other side, and think we’ve been reminded about that,” Mr. Washburn said. “We know demographics have changed in recent years. And if our side hasn’t been aware of that, they’re rapidly becoming aware of that. The Biden victory had a big part.”
The breakdown of votes so far shows that vote-rich Democratic strongholds, including Fulton and DeKalb Counties in metropolitan Atlanta, are posting high numbers, while African-Americans statewide are “voting their weight and then some,” said Charles S. Bullock III, a political scientist at the University of Georgia. At the same time, Dr. Bullock noted, turnout has been weak in the northwestern part of the state, which is home to many working-class white Trump supporters. In Walker County, which Mr. Trump won with 79 percent of the vote, the turnout, as of Wednesday, was only 47 percent of the general election total, according to the website georgiavotes.com.
Ossoff Outfoxes Fox: Video here of him directly addressing Fox News audience. "I appreciated the free air time!" he said later.
Wood Pecker: After a day of floating ever more insane conspiracy theories--now linking Chief Justice John Roberts to Jeffrey Epstein and sex with minors--disgraced attorney Lin Wood filed an Emergency Petition in the US Supreme Court seeking to halt the Georgia Senate run-off.
Political Foot Ball GOPers and wingnuts still trying to prove that Rev. Warnock ran over his ex-wife's foot with his car with intent, despite no evidence. AJC with new piece and review of bodycam footage showing none of the cops believed it happened or if it did a pure accident. And now there's a statement by the ex-wife: “My children and I have no place in the politics of this election,” she said. “I thank our community for the support and prayers we have received this year, and ask the broader public to respect our family’s privacy.”
Weather or Not: From the AJC's Jim Galloway just now:
Weather forecasters tell us that the temperature will be right around 32 degrees Fahrenheit when polls open at 7 a.m. Tuesday for a final day of voting in two U.S. Senate runoffs. Even so, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger wants you to know that anyone who offers a cup of hot chocolate to any voter standing in line – and any voter who partakes of said cup of warmth – could be guilty of a felony under Georgia law.
December 30 (Wednesday)
Trump Wants to Jack Kemp: "President Trump this afternoon demanded that Gov. Brian Kemp resign because he refused his demand to illegally overturn election results, his harshest rebuke yet of his fellow Republican days before crucial Georgia runoff votes for control of the U.S. Senate," the AJC reports.
Joe vs. Don, round #345: Biden team just announced he (and Harris) will campaign in Georgia on Monday--same day Trump has set evening rally. Harris also going to Savannah on Sunday. "Democrats hope Biden’s next visit can inspire less regular voters, particularly those who voted in November purely to oppose Trump, to return to the polls. They also are betting that his relatively moderate brand of politics can help counter the GOP messaging depicting Ossoff and Warnock as 'radical liberals.'”
Split End?: Interesting piece by none other than Nate Silver on why there might very well be a divided ending in runoff, with one Dem winning. "Precedent about past
runoffs is not necessarily that informative considering Georgia has
changed a lot since most of those runoffs were conducted." Nate hedges but calls "the Loeffler race likely being the easier of the two for Democrats to win." And a key point: "So although there are many reasons to be cautious about early voting data,
it’s at least intriguing that Black voter turnout represents a larger
share of the electorate so far than it did at a comparable point in the
November election." In the end, Nate admits he changed his mind in writing the story--he started feeling the GOPers had edge but ended believing it is true toss-up--but with Warnock having the slightly better shot.
Another Trump/GOP defeat: I noted earlier this week that Georgia officials in a few counties were checking samples of ballots to see if GOP claims of fraudulent signatures really existed. And now we get this not shocking report from the AJC's Greg Bluestein: "The unprecedented review of signatures on absentee ballot envelopes found that the Cobb Elections Department had 'a 99.99% accuracy rate in performing correct signature verification procedures' and no fraudulent absentee votes, Georgia’s top elections official says."
Funniest moment yesterday: Trump claiming some kind of Georgia/China conspiracy by noting Sec. of State Brad Raffensperger's brother works for China. One problem: Brad does not even have a brother.
Perdue for a Loss: Pathetic new claim from the incumbent, after noting that Ossoff once sold a documentary film to a Chinese media company: “Who knows what the relationship is like between Jon Ossoff and the Chinese Communist Party? What we know is that he did work for the Chinese Communists at the same time they were influencing (Eric) Swalwell and Hunter Biden. Now you tell me where this thing ends.”
Polls Apart? Pollsters are now flooding Georgia and of course we should be wary, though surveys in the state this past autumn turned how pretty on the money. Today comes a new poll from Trafalger, which is interesting in that it is known as a GOP-leaner--and finds both Warnock and Ossoff up a point or two.
Tweet last night from some guy named Obama: "We’re just one week away from the U.S. Senate runoff elections in Georgia. If you’re in Georgia, make a plan to vote early if you can and reach out to your friends and family to make sure they do the same."
Knockin on Heaven's Doors? Major NY Times piece on efforts to knock on two million doors and boost black turnout even higher in GA. “It’s unheard-of to turn out more people in a runoff than the general election,” Felicia Davis, a veteran organizer in majority-Black Clayton County, Ga., told me. “But,” she insisted, “we are going to do it."
Raw numbers beyond the door-knocking: Ossoff’s campaign said Monday that volunteers and
staffers have made more than 5 million phone calls and sent off 4
million text messages since the runoff election began. And his closing pitch in new ad focuses on driving black turnout.
It flashes back to the stories of five black Georgians his campaign featured
in earlier ads, and they highlight how the pandemic has disproportionately targeted African-American families--plus scenes of demonstrations demanding
racial justice and equality.
Stephen Fowler, GA voting pro: "If most of the votes in this election come before Election Day, and they're coming from Democratic strongholds (and Democrats in Republican strongholds like data suggests), it'll take a big, strong Election Day showing for Republicans to win these runoffs."
Stacey Abrams: “Republicans do not know how to win without voter suppression as one of their tools.”
December 29 (Tuesday)
Breaking: Loeffler and Perdue, under pressure from opponents (and empathy/morality), suddenly backed the $2000 stimulus checks today. Both are picturing this as simply backing their beloved President. Loeffler: "I've stood by the president 100% of the time. I'm proud to do that and I've said, absolutely, we need to get relief to Americans now and I will support that."
Loeffler All the Way to the Bank: Old pal and colleague David Corn at Mother Jones on Loeffler's conflicts of interest even worse than we thought. "In the Senate, she oversaw regulators as they made decisions affecting her own financial interests."
Sharp Turn: Today's update puts early vote at a whopping 2.3 million. Still lagging in many GOP areas. 156,153 voted in person Monday and 37,166 absentee ballots marked accepted Monday.
To Hill and Back: AJC outlines challenges for the GOPers.
U.S. House votes Monday evening to increase the size of individual stimulus checks from $600 to $2,000 and override President Donald Trump’s veto of an annual military spending bill set the stage for a pair of tough decisions for U.S. Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue.
As early as Tuesday, the two incumbents could face a vote on whether to endorse Trump’s call for heftier payments or stand firm on the spending measure they approved just last week. They also must decide whether to join the House’s override of Trump’s veto of the must-pass defense spending bill, which includes a pay raise for service members.
No Georgia Republicans in the House supported the $2,000 stimulus checks.
Better Up: Rev. Warnock's reputed closing message, in ad, one week out: “Kelly Loeffler spends tens of millions of dollars to scare you. She’s attacked my church, attacked my faith. She’s even attacked my family. She’s trying to make you afraid of me because she’s afraid of you."
Money Rivers to Cross: NBC making a big deal out of Schumer no longer pushing for more donations to Georgia--claiming it suggests Dems are "writing it off." Idiotic. Two Dem candidates have raised over $200 million, even more than the GOPers and little left to spend on (and if they have spent foolishly it's on them). As we saw in Maine--money not only does not buy victory it can turn people off who are solicited ten times a day.
Speaking Spanish Latino voters targeted and on the spot. {"As
the runoff election nears, both Democrats and Republicans are courting
the roughly 250,000 Latino voters in Georgia. Democratic
U.S. Senate candidates Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff are trying to get
Latinos back to the polls by emphasizing COVID-19 relief and changes to
immigration policy."
Stock Answer: Rev. Warnock quips, "The only thing Kelly Loeffler has represented well is her stock portfolio."
Polls Jumping: Yes, many state polls were way off for Senate races around the country this past autumn but polls in Georgia turned out pretty damn accurate. So here is Nate Silver's 538.com page on the latest. In all, the leaders have only narrow margins within error range.
Take a Head Count A bunch of things to do for runoff in GA from your home, as well as check out musical events and etc. here at Head Count.
December 28 (Monday)
Lin Wood...not: Georgia federal court dismisses GOP’s 5th voter suppression lawsuit related to the Georgia run-off elections. Lin Wood batting a perfect .000.
Don's Greene New Deal: Trump planning GA rally on the night of Jan. 4--on runoff eve and two days before he leads attempted D.C. coup--and it will be just outside Dalton, soon to be represented by QAnon lover Marjorie Taylor Greene. This district has lowest early vote turnout for GOP in the state. One presumes she will stand with him but will Georgians feel sick? And among other things, Greene claims November election was all a fraud--even though somehow she won.
Turns out Don visited Dalton way back in 1991--with one of his ex-wives, Marla Maples, who hails from not away. Video here.
Will Bill Pay Off? AJC analyzes whether Trump finally signing the pandemic/stimulus bill will help or hurt the GOP candidates...."At a Saturday event in Milton, Loeffler steered clear of mentioning the fight over the stimulus plan, instead repeating her campaign mantra that she and Perdue are the 'firewall to stopping socialism.'” Warnock statement:
"Senate Republicans are the only reason Georgians won't receive a $2000 relief check. Trump agreed. Democratic leaders in the House and Senate agreed. But Loeffler and McConnell refused. After blocking relief for nine months. When we win, we'll get families the help they need."
AJC's Joe Galloway on Monday: "Early this morning, the Perdue campaign ragged on Democratic opponent Jon Ossoff for calling the $600 check that many Americans will receive 'a joke.; Conveniently leaving out the fact that Trump called the amount a 'disgrace.'”
Also from Galloway: "The Georgia Senate runoffs are now the two most expensive congressional elections in American political history, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics."
Turn, Turn, Turnout: New report and map on early voting by Stephen Fowler show 2.1 votes in but lagging a bit in...the Republican north (boo hoo). And broken down: Absentee by mail received: 748,288. Absentee in person: 1,377,952....Stacey Abrams today: “Republicans do not know how to win without voter suppression as one of their tools.”
Stacey and the Veep: Big Stacey Abrams/Julia Louis Dreyfuss funder on Tuesday, need to donate at least ten bucks to attend....Fox News says George W. Bush and old buddy Karl Rove planning go boost Loeffler and Perdue...Unearthed, Loeffler's forecast for he future in high school yearbook: “Be on L.A. Law or a partner in a financial firm.” Warnock now says Kelly and her husband have spent $30 million of their own dough to "buy" the Senate seat.
Youth Vote: AJC talked to six younger voters and looks at whether they will remain active in future...
December 27 (Sunday)
Signature Move From Atlanta Journal Constitution with usual array: Checking signatures from a 15,000 sample in Cobb County to authenticate ballots and add to "confidence." Hiding the true source of PAC funds behind Perdue/Loeffler billboards. And major piece on troubles expecting after Jan. 5:
“Even if there’s a blowout election, I think we’ll have people saying: ‘Well, obviously it was stolen. We have close elections in this state,’ ” Sterling said. “So no matter what direction you go, that’s going to happen.” He’s not alone. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution interviewed more than a dozen state officials, voting rights experts and party leaders who are quietly gearing up for a tortured election aftermath even while the U.S. Senate runoff campaigns are in full swing.Their message: Brace yourselves, Georgia voters. These races might not be settled for weeks.
A Lot of Pull? Ossoff demands that Perdue pull ads claiming he helped get Covid relief bill passed--when in fact Trump has not even signed. Story here on how Trump's move complicated GA race. New Ossoff ad here related to this.
Sunday With Cherry on Top: Stacey Abrams tweeted late yesterday: "ATTENTION voters in DeKalb, Fulton and Gwinnett: Early voting is open tomorrow (Sunday, December 27) just for YOU! Go to iwillvote.com and find a location in your county. Don’t wait!"
As of Christmas Eve, more than 2M people have already cast ballots for the Senate runoffs, very near presidential pace. Amazingly, about 65k of them didn’t vote in the general election.
Kelly Girls Revolt This story is six days old but worth a look, on how Loeffler's b-ball team members all hate her. “If she wants to play this political game, we thought, we can, too,” Williams said. “We’re college graduates. We’re not dumb here. We can strategize and learn from people. We can learn a little about politics.”
Pods and End. Daily ballot-oriented podcast here worth a listen.
Dough! Money raised tops 100 million for the Dems--and that's as of 11 days ago! 10/15 - 12/16:
$106,798,591 - Ossoff.
$103,387,058 - Warnock.
$68,070,316 - Perdue.
$63,963,964 - Loeffler.
Fun facts: There is indeed a "Bubba" in another runoff on Jan. 5, this one for public service commissioner. It's A GOPer named Lauren “Bubba” McDonald.
November 20 (Thursday)
NOTE: This blog is going on hiatus for now. Will re-start as events warrant but that's it for now, folks. -- GM
Death Threats: According to the Wash Post, the wife of the GA secy of state received these text messages this week: “You better not botch this recount. Your life depends on it.” “Your husband deserves to face a firing squad.” “The Raffenspergers should be put on trial for treason and face execution.”
Kelly Crime?: Salon with new piece on Loeffler.
"Kelly Loeffler, R-Ga., the ultra-wealthy unelected legislator who faces a January runoff election, solicited campaign donations in the halls of Congress during a Wednesday morning Fox News appearance, in an apparent violation of both Senate ethics rules and federal law." Update: AJC with full report this morning.
50 Shades of Red: GOP launches 50 state fundraising drive for GA races--"headed by veteran strategist Karl Rove to oversee fundraising for twin Georgia runoffs that will decide control of the chamber....The national GOP fundraising effort undercuts a favorite attack of Georgia conservatives, who have long blasted Democrats for taking out-of-state money."
Meanwhile, Major NY Times piece today on "crazy" amount of money flooding into GA. "Super PACs on both sides are racing to lock up a shrinking supply of television airtime as ad rates in the Atlanta market skyrocket, with prices this week already higher than in some of the top presidential battlegrounds in October.... Political strategists say they cannot recall any modern time when so much was on the line in a runoff election in a single state. Major Democratic and Republican donors alike are responding by opening their checkbooks, and small donors are rushing to contribute online, officials said."
Recount Down: GA expected to fully confirm Biden victory. Although a few thousand uncounted votes found on thumbs drives etc., vote margin barely changed and vast majority of counties came back with exact numbers from earlier.
Perdue Chicken By Design: AJC on his "debate dodge" fitting his early strategy. "Perdue might have a tactical reason to avoid more events. His last
debate with Ossoff, shortly before the election, yielded a moment seen
by millions of viewers when the Democrat called him a 'crook.'
That confrontation overshadowed the Republican’s performance. He’s also
recently recovered from knee surgery, which some supporters say has
factored into his plans."
FUND FUND FUND CNN claims GOP up $28 million in ad money for GA right now...
Eight ways to donate to the two races through various groups and sites....Final day to register happens to be my birthday, December 7, a day that will not live in infamy this year
November 18 (Wednesday)
Enter Trump? Byron York in the rightwing Washington Examiner today: “Republicans from Mitch McConnell down are telling Trump he has the opportunity to leave the Republican Party in a stronger position in Washington than any GOP president since Ronald Reagan.... A GOP Senate can stop Biden’s legislative agenda cold. In more blunt terms, helping Republicans win the Senate would be the best way for Trump to stick it to Biden, to stick it to Chuck Schumer, to stick it to Nancy Pelosi, to get some measure of payback, and to walk away from Washington with Republicans having real power to preserve some of Trump’s accomplishments. If Trump will work for Perdue and Loeffler victories, it will add one final accomplishment to an already impressive list of things Trump got done in a single term. The GOP’s future for the next few years could depend on Trump’s embrace of that view.”
Turning the page: Maybe ignore old models? Analysis by NYT's Nate Cohn this morning: "One election looms over the Georgia runoff: the 2008 runoff, when the GOP won a runoff election by 15 points after leading by just 3 points on Election Day. I really don't think this should, well, loom over our analysis...I don't think we expect such a severe drop-off in this runoff. And in this case, a Black candidate is at the top of the ticket....Now, none of this means that the Democrats are clearly favored to win or something. GOP outvoted Dems in both Senate races in the general. But I think Dem chances are being downgraded from ok to a pipedream for reasons that aren't true anymore, even if they were a decade ago."
Catching up: After lot of hand-wringing over massive national GOP funding of their candidates, the fund for Senate Dems announced it was kicking in $5 million for their guys. The Senate Majority PAC’s initial investment includes $4.5 million in TV spending that starts with a pair of ads pummeling Republican U.S. Sens. Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue. An additional $500,000 will be devoted to digital spending. It’s the latest in a surge of spending for the consequential runoffs. All told, the campaigns and outside groups have spent roughly $100 million on TV and radio advertising in the first two weeks of the runoff.
You better, MoveOn: The liberal activist group with an email this morning on the same subject as the above, asking all members to chip in a few bucks, after noting plans by the GOPers and their "billionaire backers" to reserve $40 million already in ads.
Georgia GOP Not Peachy: Another major NY Times piece tonight on the party feuds, stance on Trump and fraud, and the two Senate runoffs. "In Georgia, opinions are split over whether the intraparty feud will drag down Mr. Perdue and Ms. Loeffler. There is a fear among some Republicans that disparaging the voting system might convince some Trump voters not to turn out, on the belief that their vote will not count. Others fear that Mr. Trump will continue to make a spectacle and dampen the enthusiasm of well-educated, high-propensity voters in the suburbs who have wearied of four years of tumult."
Debate and switch: Sen. Loeffler has agreed to debate Warnock on Dec. 6. This will come one day after the Ossoff vs. Empty Podium debate....VP Pence coming to GA to campaign for the two Repubs on Friday...
Virus warning: Meanwhile, Covid may soon rage in the state, which has kept it in check better than most until now. “We are not in good shape, and many parts of the country are doing so much worse,” said Dr. Harry J. Heiman, a clinical associate professor at the Georgia State University School of Public Health. “But that’s the direction that we, too, are headed if we don’t get more aggressive and make efforts to take charge.”
Sen. Chuck Schumer's Senate Majority PAC launching two affiliated Georgia SuperPACs, The Georgia Way and Georgia Honor.
November 17 (Tuesday)
Graham Theft: Update. Witness who took part in Graham/Raffensperger call confirms, via CNN. "A staffer for Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger said Tuesday
that he participated in a controversial phone call with Sen. Lindsey
Graham and said he heard Graham ask if state officials could throw out
ballots." Graham now admits he also spoke with officials in AZ and NV. Calls for Graham's resignation may increase. Already has easily earned the not-coveted "Lindseygate" tag.
Jennifer Rubin of the Wash Post urges a full investigation of Lindsey Graham's attempt to fix the GA vote count in the presidential race (see report below). "Federal and/or state law enforcement should get to the bottom of this, requiring both parties to the conversation, and any witnesses, to preserve evidence. Stephen I. Vladeck, an election law guru and University of Texas law professor, tells me, 'At least as relayed in the Post story, Sen. Graham appears to have been attempting to convince Secretary Raffensperger to alter the valid results of Georgia’s election — in a manner that may run afoul of numerous provisions of Georgia election law.' He adds, 'At the very least, it’s a serious matter that might warrant further investigation — and that is grossly unbecoming of any United States senator, let alone the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.'”
Walter Schaub, former director of the Office of Government Ethics writes: "The allegation that the Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee pressured the Georgia Secretary of State to throw out lawfully cast votes describes conduct that threatens the foundation of our republic by one of the government's most senior officials. It must be investigated." And from a top Dem, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries: "Did Lindsey Graham illegally pressure the Georgia Secretary of State to rig the election after the fact? The Justice Department should find out."
GA turnout surprise? Interesting data from Nate Cohn of the NY Times today. He writes that Georgia is first state with nearly complete records of the 2020 votes and he is able to ID that while turnout was strong the black share of the vote actually declined vs. 2016 and even more from 2018. That's because the gains in turnout were mainly among whites (of both parties) and in suburban ring around Atlanta. This was true in many other places in USA which showed same pattern. And, of course, voter suppression also a factor.
They don't want your votes: GOP and Dem leaders in GA have asked outsiders not to move to the state if goal is simply to vote in January runoffs. They fear this would raise unwanted questions about the "integrity" of the votes. Top Democrats have issued a call for supporters outside Georgia to “help us mobilize voters and raise the resources we need from where you are,” as Stacey Abrams put it. "Some rank-and-file lawmakers have urged Gov. Brian Kemp and other GOP officials to tighten residency requirements and crack down on new arrivals. A story in the San Francisco Chronicle about how some Californians will 'descend' on Georgia to promote Democratic campaigns was the talk of Republican circles here."
Warnock tweets today: "I hear you're ready to debate, @Kloeffler. Assume that means I'll see you December 6th at the Atlanta Press Club, and twice more so Georgians know who will work for them."
More: "The recount, Raffensperger said in the interview Monday, will 'affirm' the results of the initial count. He said the hand-counted audit that began last week will also prove the accuracy of the Dominion machines; some counties have already reported that their hand recounts exactly match the machine tallies previously reported."
Pain Perdue Report of his phone call with Karl Rove finds him claiming he will do better in runoff because of anti-Trump voters in suburbs who will now come home to him. He also whines about changing face of GA electorate (wonder what the color of that face is?) and that too many have moved there from blue states such as NY, NJ, IL.
How did Loeffler defeat Collins so easily? It holds lessons for how she will tackle--"swarm"--Warnock. For one thing: "Loeffler’s vast wealth - the former financial executive is married to the owner of the New York Stock Exchange - allowed her to flood the airwaves with all manner of TV ads: Warm-and-fuzzy messages, issues-oriented spots, scathing attacks on Collins."
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill: With
MacAdams' loss in Utah, the 5 uncalled ultra-tight House races are down
to Smith and Cox in CA, Malinowski in NJ, Brindisi in NY and Hart in
Iowa. Right now, after a horrid election, Dems have 218 seats--exactly
the number needed for House control. They are certain to win a couple
of the less tight (though uncalled races) but could lose all 5 of the
races listed above.
GOP call for march this weekend makes GA a blue state....
November 16 (Monday)
Trump hitting GOP leaders in GA may hurt chances for the two Senate candidates, due to infighting etc.--according to new Wall St. Journal piece.
New piece from the (minus-Greenwald) Intercept site on how Perdue exploited loophole on overtime pay and will continue to undermine minimum wage moves.
Official debunking of Trump's wild and crazy claims about vote fraud in GA this morning on Facebook by the Secretary of State--the \same fellow Perdue and Loeffler have demanded step down. You can follow the "Get your facts straight" threads at this GA reporter's Twitter feed.
Sen. Perdue, as many of us expected--hence my label "Perdue Chicken" earlier this week--announced Sunday
that indeed he will not debate Ossoff before the election. He was
eviscerated in the final de debate this autumn and videos went viral. Ossoff responded: "Looks
like Sen. David Perdue is too much of a coward to debate me again.
Perdue can’t defend his lies about COVID-19, self-dealing stock trades,
his bigotry, or his votes to take away Georgians’ health care." The press club hosting the debate says it will go on--with empty podium for Perdue.
Ossoff on Monday in his TV ads really hitting Perdue for downplaying the Covid threat for many months. "TV ads play an outsized role in the cliffhanger campaigns. Much of the battle between the four rivals – U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler faces Democrat Raphael Warnock in the other contest – will play out on the airwaves. More than $76 million has already been spent or reserved on airtime through the votes."
The two Dem candidates, now both facing rough attack ads, decided to hold first joint appearance on Sunday and move even closer together in "unity." Speaking from a pickup truck, "both Ossoff and Warnock stuck to uplifting themes. Ossoff said Biden’s victory heralded a new political era, one in which Americans can be confident their leaders are effectively handling the coronavirus pandemic and other crises."
Stacey Abrams tweets: "BREAKING: More than 600,000 Georgians have requested their mail ballots for the January 5 runoff elections."
Warnock with Jake Tapper yesterday.
November 14-15 (Saturday-Sunday):
Report on "surge" of volunteers, money, journos, and activity into GA for runoffs, from Atlanta Journal-Constitition. GOP ready:
"The National Republican Senatorial Committee said it was building a 'presidential-level voter-contact operation' in conjunction with the
Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue campaigns, fanning 1,000 staffers across
the state. Republicans believe it’s the largest field program in
Georgia history."
New "Looting Loeffler" video on her insider trading... When her husband gave Trump PAC a million bucks...AOC raised $280,000 for the 2 Dems in one night
Details on Stacey Abrams' plans for the runoffs after already raising $6 million for the two candidates. "Abrams plans to campaign across Georgia with the Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, who are challenging Loeffler and U.S. Sen. David Perdue, respectively. And she is involved in the behind-the-scenes strategy sessions and fundraising that are crucial to successful campaigns. Her shorthand for the next eight weeks: mission, message and money....Abrams' Fair Fight focuses on legal work to protect voting rights while the New Georgia Project registers voters. His organization is partnered with the Movement for Black Lives on get-out-to-vote events and canvassing."
NY Times with history of Georgia's odd runoff system, which was designed, of course, to hold back minorities.
Ossoff today: "Rural hospitals have been closing on Sen. Perdue's watch. He opposes Medicaid expansion, even though it would help sustain rural hospitals & help hundreds of thousands afford health care. I'll deliver vital resources for rural health centers to serve the people!"
Georgia recount now underway. The recount must be done by Friday which that is the deadline for sending absentee ballots to military abroad for the Senate runoffs. While they are not recounting the votes in the Senate races the results do have to be certified by then along with the presidential side.
Hey Mark Cuban, not either/or: "For those considering donating to Reps or Dems in the Georgia Senate run-offs, can you please re-consider and donate that money to your local food bank and organizations that can help those without food or shelter? Lets put Americans in need above Politics."
Stephen Colbert vid exposes GOP mixed message in GA....
Health care at center stage in races. "An analysis of census data by the Kaiser Family Foundation found that Georgia ranked 47th out of 50 states for coverage in 2019, with 13.4% of its population between ages 19 and 64, or 1.38 million working-age Georgians, uninsured."
November 13 (Friday):
CNN just called Georgia for Biden. Sweet Georgia down....
GOP, damn it AP reports: "Republicans are flooding Georgia with cash and field operatives as they look to keep Democrats from seizing control of the Senate under President-elect Joe Biden’s administration. The Republican National Committee said Friday it is funding more than 600 staffers in the state with an investment of at least $20 million ahead of the Jan. 5 runoffs for the seats held by GOP Sens."
Defeated SC candidate Jaime Harrison declares he and team are "still in the fight! In the last week we’ve raised over $450,000 for the Georgia Senate runoffs! We are on the verge of a New South," with Ossoff and Warnock.
Here is prime example of the attack ads already here against Rev. Warbock, which centers on the arrest
in 2002 for allegedly interfering with an investigation of abuse at a
summer camp which he helped run (he was not suspected as an abuser).
That charge was not only dropped, he was then praised by the probers for
his cooperation. Loeffler and even outsider Sen. Tom Cotton hit
him on this Thursday.
Warnock responded: “Kelly Loeffler ... sits down for interviews with known white supremacists and accepts the endorsement of a candidate who traffics in the QAnon conspiracy theory that is rife with hatred and bigotry. It is shameful.” A Loeffler ad on Thursday tied to him Rev. Jeremiah Wright (for those with long memories) and another opens with an image of schoolchildren pledging allegiance to the flag as a narrator warns of an attempted takeover by the “radical left.”
Laura Ingraham last night on Fox called Ossoff a "punitive little punk" and tried to tie him to the Chinese Communists....Freddie Freeman of the Atlanta Braves won the National League MVP award yesterday--anyone courting his endorsement?
Stunning example of activists everywhere mobilizing: Phone bank for the Georgians already at work in...Massachusetts.
Further evidence of Dem funding concerns: MoveOn this afternoon sent out money appeal to members, revealing is all in on GA races but "we'll be honest with you. We left it all on the field to defeat Trump and elect Joe Biden. We simply don't have the resources to power our efforts in Georgia—and we certainly don't have a secret cadre of billionaires on speed dial to bankroll our efforts."
Fun signs spotted in GA this week: "Vote your Ossoff." Via Twitter: "Warnock and Ossoff need to tour Georgia together like freakin OutKast for the next 2 months."
November 12 (Thursday):
Stacey Abrams will run for governor again, The Daily Beast reports, according to various allies, although another midterm try will be a challenge. But a spokesperson for Abrams said: “Leader Abrams has made no decisions about her political future and is solely focused on electing Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock on January 5.”
Dem money issues? The Daily Beast also today with warning of possible funding imbalance. The two GOP candidates have already dropped $2 million from big money sources while such for the two Dems quiet. "On Wednesday, Americans for Prosperity Action, a super PAC affiliated with billionaire Charles Koch, dropped $440,000 on digital ads and canvassing expenses in support of Perdue’s runoff bid. On the same day, FreedomWorks, a libertarian-leaning activist group, spent more than $230,000 on canvassing for Perdue and Loeffler." Note: "The structural disadvantages to Democratic fundraising in Georgia are immense. As The Daily Beast reported Thursday, Democratic donors, who funneled hundreds of millions of dollars into losing 2020 Senate contests, are largely tapped out. And the party’s poor showing, compared to late-cycle polling that showed a huge opportunity to win a sizable majority in the chamber, has dispirited many of its financial backers.The pain is being most acutely felt among Democrats’ largest donors—the people who would be putting up money for an independent spending blitz to counter what Republicans are already mustering in Georgia."
Secretary of State Raffensperger is self-quarantining after his wife tested positive for COVID-19. Raffensperger, 65, will get tested himself this afternoon.
Don't miss Warnock fun with his new vid predicting negative ads against him are coming--and he creates a few fake ones himself: He eats pizza with a fork! He hates puppies!
Live updates on the GA recount as it begins today. Scary: there could even be a recount of the recount....Michelle Ye Hee Lee just now: "And they'll make the whole thing open to the public and media coverage, live streaming if they have the ability to do so, with bipartisan monitors/poll watchers." Working through the weekend to get it done in every county. Who is paying? The counties.
He's got a friend: The great Carole King with email funding plea for "my friend" Jon Ossoff today. "With the election of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, we have an
opportunity to bring real change to this country. But if we don’t elect
Jon in his January runoff, Mitch McConnell and the GOP will stay in
control of the Senate, and it’s going to be much, much harder. That’s why I’m in this fight."
Morning report from Atlanta Journal-Constitution: The two Dems angling for visits by Obama, Harris and Biden, who have not ruled it out....At Loeffler/Rubio rally the word "socialist" was aired a dozen times..."Some Georgia Republicans privately worry that besmirching the integrity of the vote could backfire by influencing loyal Trump supporters to ignore the Senate runoffs..."
Even if Obama doesn't visit GA, consider his recent remark about Loeffler and Perdue: "They downplayed the pandemic in public, and in private they're trying to see if they can profit from it...I promise you, Georgia was definitely not on their mind."
Remember Ralph Reed? The longtime GOP and Christian activist from Georgia warns, “These runoffs have become the political equivalent of ‘Braveheart’ where everyone paints their face blue and just charges across the field.” But he adds: “If we can get the Trump vote back out in the suburbs, we should be able to get this done. But it will be very hard and extremely competitive.”
Taking those midnight trains: Deborah Scott, executive director of Georgia STAND-UP, a progressive activist group, tells Yahoo News tonight: “When we look at what’s going to happen over the next nine weeks, we
know that there are going to be a lot of people that want to come to
Georgia and they want to help.”
Warnock last night: "When we win on January 5th, we're going to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act." Ossoff on CNN stressed new Covid crisis and need for Dems in control of it.
NYT with major report at top of site: "Senators are lining up day trips to Atlanta to campaign. Party leaders are carefully calibrating their postelection messages to frame the fight on the ground. And Biden’s transition team is tailoring its plans to two drastically different outcomes, preparing an ambitious agenda in case Democrats are able to win both races and take control of the Senate, and a more pared-back one in case they fall short...The impact was apparent throughout the Capitol. Speaker Nancy Pelosi privately warned House members to watch their words in the coming weeks to deny Republicans any new ammunition to caricature the Democrats as extremists."
Headline from venerable Israeli daily Haaretz just now: "As Rev. Warnock’s Israel Record Becomes an Issue, Atlanta Jews Call the Senate Candidate a Friend."
Early voting starts December 14. Georgia voters can already request absentee ballots here. You can volunteer from afar to write postcards for the candidates via this site.
November 11:
Alaska Senate race finally just called for GOPer, and along with the North Carolina call yesterday--it's now officially 50-48 for Repubs so no longer any doubts--Dems must win the two GA seats for a tie, with Kamala the decider....
Since you care about the GA races you probably also worry about GOP gains in House. In called races, Dems have a guaranteed bare majority at 218 but GOPers lead in most left. My advice: check out NYT map often to see how the uncalled races are going with special attention to Underwood (Ill.), MacAdams (UT), Smith and Cox (CA) and the dead even Iowa contest. Maloney and DelGado in my NY are in the bag.
In case you're wondering: the costly and absurd "hand recount" of all 5 million ballots ordered today (no doubt under Trump pressure) by secretary of state does not cover the Senate races, so no chance Perdue will magically reach the 50% mark and cancel runoff.
@DaveWeigel of Wash Post tweet-covering Rubio speech in Cobb County now. Marco made the expected reference to Warnock working at church in NYC that hosted Fidel...in 1995. Warns liberals will move to state just to vote. “Normal people who ... want a country that's safe and stable and give their children a chance at a better life, they’re gonna vote against people that are crazy, and that want to undermine all of that.” Tightly-packed mask-averse crowd in state with 8% Covid positive rate. Loeffler adds, "The road to socialism does not lead through Georgia."
CNN reporter Kyung Lah, covering the above, tweeted that her entire "team has physically left this indoor rally. It’s not safe given the COVID numbers in Georgia."
Yeah, we are all survey-skeptical now, but first GA poll released to public finds Warnock down just 1% and Ossoff
behind by 4%--but comes from a sometimes GOP-leaning polling firm. Details:
Women favor the two Dems by wide margin. Warnock has the best
favorable rating (but only now is drawing GOP attack ads). Independents
are evenly split. Only 3-4% of all polled were "undecided." (It was
conducted by Remington Research Group between
Nov. 8-9 and involved 1,450 likely runoff voters.) The margin of
error was 2.6 percentage points. It found 43% calling themselves
Repubs and 37% Dems. So: turnout, turnout, turnout.
"David Perdue, Kelly Loeffler could write the book on being Trump toadies." That's how Bill Torpy piece begins at Atlanta Journal-Constitution today. Ends: "Loeffler and Perdue just want to prolong any Trump tantrum until the day after the runoff."
NYT just up with a 32-minute audio discussion of the runoffs.
First "grassroots fundraiser" for Warnock features him in a discussion with Mayor Pete tomorrow....Just announced that VP Pence will be stumping in the state for the two corrupt GOPers on Nov. 20....Plea by Ossoff today: "We can make voter suppression a federal crime. But only if we win the Senate."
GOP out with major ad buy in GA starring Sen. Rick Scott and...Chuck Schumer? It seizes on Schumer's allegedly incendiary remark, "Now we take Georgia, then we change America."
Atlanta paper with rare above the logo on front page editorial link blasting Loeffler and Perdue.
Rolling Stone now has a full round-up on the races if you wish to catch up.
Salon with report today on Sen. Loeffler trying to take advantage of Trump tax loophold to write off cost of her private campaign jet....NYT's Paul Krugman finds hope, but may be limited, in GA.
Georgia illustrator Tim Williams this to the blog today, thanks Tim.....
November 10: At 9 p.m., new votes added to give Biden a lead of over 14,000 in GA, which now tops his lead in AZ (which is a little more than 12,000). And Ossoff has closed gap on Perdue to 49.7-48.0. Biden, meanwhile, has now topped 5 million in his lead over Trump.
Apparently Trump was behind the desperate Perdue and Loeffler attacks on their own (GOP) secretary of state yesterday. Just now from the venerable Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "We’re told the president and his top allies pressured the two Republican
senators to take this step, lest he tweet a negative word about them
and risk divorcing them from his base ahead of the consequential runoff. And shortly after, Trump
and some of his inner circle started tweeting attacks at Raffensperger,... WSB radio analyst Jamie Dupree called it 'an orchestrated election move the likes of which I’ve never seen before.'"
Stacey Abrams on Colbert show last night. Says she's good to go in fight for Senate seats since she got 17 minutes sleep on Saturday "and can't dawdle too long." And now she's on CBS this morning, watch here.
A strong new "bio" vid for Warnock released, contrasting his humble background with "billionaire" out of touch opponent. And his new online "action hub" for those who want to help.
But also Fox News online article "reveals" that he was asst. pastor at famous church in NYC when it hosted Fidel Castro--in 1995. Also already hints of linking him to Rev. Wright--all the greatest hits coming!
CNN with a major online report this morning. "Cliff Albright, co-founder of Black Voters Matter, said Ossoff is 'going to have to do a better job with Black voter outreach.' He said his group would do its part, sending waves of text messages and caravans of buses and vans to counties with significant African American populations in order to drive turnout." Ted Cruz, meanwhile, predicts a "socialist abyss" if the two Dems win.
Mark Ruffalo urging fans to donate or aid the two Dems. Even "the Mooch"--Anthony Scaramucci--is on board, tweeting today, "Georgia Senate runoffs are as important as presidential election. If GOP wins one of those races, they’ll sabotage the Biden admin in pursuit of a return to power. No excuse for @TheDemocrats to lose them given they’re all about turnout. We must root out enablers of Trumpism."
The GA secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger--a Republican--responds to calls for his dismissial: “Earlier today Senators Loeffler and Perdue called for my resignation. Let me start by saying that is not going to happen. The voters of Georgia hired me, and the voters will be the one to fire me.”
Right-wing commentator Erick Erickson, who lives in the state, on the vote fraud complaints: “Trump is gonna cost the GOP the Senate. His supporters are internalizing that the election in Georgia was stolen so why bother even trying.”
In case you were wondering: Yes, the Lincoln Project is fully backing Warnock and Ossoff. Their chief of veterans affairs noted this morning on their work in GA: "There’s over 88,000 military members in the state plus thousands more family. We’ll be reminding them every single day how hard you’re working to throw out their votes across the country." Not to mention the "losers" and "suckers" mocking.
For what it's worth: the betting oddsmakers have Warnock as the favorite and Ossoff as the underdog....
November 9: Jon Ossoff has challenged Sen. David Perdue to three debates but don't expect him to accept all, or maybe any. Perdue pulled out of the final debate last month after a disastrous performance in a previous showdown, which led to a viral video in which Ossoff's attack ("You're a crook") was compared to a Sorkinized moment from West Wing. Now can ask: Perdue chicken?
Classic: Perdue and Loeffler just called for the Georgia Secretary of State--a fellow Republican--to resign over alleged mishandling of election. And Gov. Kemp tweeted: "Georgia's election result will include legally cast ballots - and ONLY legally cast ballots. Period."
The New York Times with a full appraisal this morning of the apparent changes in opinions and hopes in Georgia. "With the November election barely over, the nation’s political focus will now turn to Georgia as much as the presidential transition in Washington, as both parties pour money and resources into what may be an epic political battle, in a state that was considered safely Republican just a decade ago. 'It’s going to be hand to hand, street by street, and either one of them can win,' said former Gov. Roy Barnes, the most recent Democratic governor in the state."
The Times had already assessed Stacey Abrams' role in victories for the candidates and the movement. Stacey here with Jake Tapper. Her FairFight claims to have raised $3.5 million just over the weekend. And a great new vid asking for support here.
Rev. Warnock looks ahead in this little vid. Ossoff does the same.
But over at DailyKos today we see this: "One major question is how much either President-elect Joe Biden or
Donald Trump will engage in the race. Democrats having control of the
Senate would be a huge advantage for Biden, but 'Some close allies' told
the Post he needed to be careful about 'chasing the white whales.'" What? Biden is hardly Ahab and these races are hardly longshots.
Rev.-ing up: That's Pastor Warnock out for his morning run today with a friend.
November 8: Greetings. By popular demand, following my recent final-days-of-Biden-campaign blog, I have just launched this new one for the crucial Georgia runoffs coming on January 5, 2021. As you know, winning these two races will give the Dems a tie in the Senate with VP Harris the tie-breaker (which you know really gives GOPers nightmares, real and symbolic). Jon Ossoff came within two points of corrupt Perdue, forcing the runoff, and Rev. Raphael Warnock topped the three-way race for two runoff slots and faces even more disgraceful Loeffler.
Mainstream view: Dems are doomed, Georgia still red and Dems have bad history in runoffs. My view: Dems can and will take both seats due to: 1) no Trump at top of ticket 2) another month for massive voter registration, including for those turning eighteen 3) momentum from Biden win 4) Stacey Abrams and her group 5) Ossoff nearly at 50% already and Warnock one of most appealing candidates in entire nation. So: donate or volunteer to help in some other way.
Another good sign: Biden lead now up to about 10,000 in Georgia, a nice edge for the coming recount. State has now been dubbed Joe-gia.
As writer Scott Stedman puts it: "The pastor of MLK’s church and an investigative journalist are running against two multimillionaire Senators who dumped stock just before the pandemic hit." Ossoff today: "I’ll stand up to the insurance and drug companies to make quality health care affordable for all. David Perdue is a loyal servant for the insurance and drug companies. The choice is clear."
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