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Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Going to the Polls

Tuesday Update:    Gallup's daily tracker brings more bad news for Obama as he loses another 2% to Romney among likely voters and now trails by a record 4% there.  Also lost two points among reg voters.  I will way again: partly reflects some negative reaction to Biden's mugging in the debate, even if Dems inside their own bubble refuse to believe it.

With addition of latest polls, Talking Points Memo's "poll-tracker" compilation puts Romney in front for first time, and by more than a full point.  His bounce had seemed to end--but then came the Veep debate, as I warned.

We noted a Muhlenberg Poll yesterday showing a surprisingly small lead for Obama in Pennsylvania (and also for Sen. Casey).  Thought it might be outlier but now Quinnipiac finds same thing, with  4% Obama edge (where he once led easily) and just 3% for "shoo-in" Casey.    This poll, in contrast to some others, showed Obama holding on to big edge among women, but men fleeing.

A new PPP/SEIU  (sometimes Dem-leaning) national poll gives Romney a 4% lead, up 2% since the last one.   Romney also leads by 3% in swing states, a gain of 7%.  This covers the three days after the veep debate and should raise questions among libs who keep telling me they simply LOVED Biden's mocking of Ryan and that surely Dem poll numbers would climb.

Today's Rasmussen tracker puts Romney back to 2% ahead.

Monday Updates:    Shocker just out from USA Today, a Gallup-generated poll of 12 swings states finding a 5% lead for Romney...as you'll see below, an ABC swing state poll just had 5 % lead for Obama.   The real shocker, if accurate, is the disappearance of a gender gap, with the 2 candidates now tied.  However, it also shows Obama ahead by 2% among reg voters, so question remains: How are they deciding the "likely"?

Today's Gallup daily tracker, out at 1 p.m.,  finds NO change on anything since yesterday--Obama still leads among reg voters and trails by 2% among likely voters.  So Obama has not gained in this 7-day poll, despite end of Romney post-debate "bump" period right after the debate.

ABC "swing state" poll now has Obama up a healthy 51%-46%.  He even gained a point today in Rasmussen, now down by just 1%.   Arizona poll shows him surprisingly with slim lead there.

Two other polls, besides the one below, from diverse sources also put Obama in front.  A poll for Politico gives him a one point lead, and he is even up 3% in Zogby poll for rightwing Newsmax.

Brand new Wash Post/ABC poll, taken this past week, gives Obama a (re-assuring) 3% lead over Romney, among likely voters.  The lead was 2% three weeks ago--before the first debate.   Yet the Post over and over calls this a "dead heat."  Or "tied."  Or "statistically insignificant." Yes, it's within the 3.5% margin of error, but there's another reason for their restraint:  This poll finds 9% more Dems than Repubs in sample, when (to hit the actual average) it should be about 6%.

And as for the first debate:  "Even as voters overwhelmingly perceive that Romney won the first debate, the vast majority say their opinion of the president did not shift as a result."  They note that voters locked-in to unusual extent. 

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