returns tonight with a full survey of which polls got election most right. The main winner--TIPP--is the one I used at Editor & Publisher when I was the editor there. Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. "For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark."
Also among the worst: Gallup. "Gallup has now had three poor elections in a row.
In 2008, their polls overestimated Mr. Obama’s performance, while in
2010, they overestimated how well Republicans would do in the race for
the United States House."
Yikes: "Perhaps it won’t be long before Google, not Gallup, is the most trusted name in polling."
And he again makes this point: "Research by polling firms and academic groups suggests that polls that fail to call cellphones may underestimate the performance of Democratic candidates."
Note: My e-book on Obama-Romney race
has just been published. "Tricks, Lies, and Videotape"
the contest right up to Election Night and the aftermath, and includes over 500 clickable
links to the most important articles, blog posts and videos. Just
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Silver Awards the Gold
is author of a dozen books (click on covers at right), including the new "THE TUNNELS: Escapes Under the Berlin Wall and the Historic Films the JFK White House Tried to Kill." He was the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org. Twitter: @GregMitch