Conventional wisdom (including my own, such as it is) had Obama slightly "winning" the latest debate, mainly because of the Iraq questions. And certainly his crowds have gotten even bigger and wilder since. But the latest Rasmussen and Gallup polls show that her lead nationally has actually widened since then from about 4 points to about 8 points. Could just be a blip, but analysts such as Markos at DailyKos feel that Obama actually made a mistake in being so cordial at the debate -- it was good for the party but bad for him, since he is the one who had to make up ground and needed to hit harder. In this view, he allowed people moving toward him to feel okay again sticking with her. Well, we will see soon.
You've probably seen Charlie Cook of the Cook Report quoted a hundred times as a leading political campaign expert/pundit. The L.A. Times helpfully looks back today at Cook telling another paper last year that John McCain's campaign was "effectively over. The physicians have left the hospital room, and it's the executors of the estate that are taking over." In other news, we now know that Rudy spent $50 million to gain one delegate -- in Nevada. At that pace it would have cost him $60 billion to get enough delegates to win the GOP nod. Even Romney doesn't have that kind of money.
3 comments:
I watched the debate with a mixed group of two dozen, all sexes, all colors, ranging in age from 26 to 70.
Though there were a handful of fierce advocates for each senator, mostly the spectators were strong leaners--my guess is more leaned towards Obama than towards Clinton, but we didn't take a head count.
What struck me most forcefully at the end of the show (and, yes, on one level it was a show) was that only three of the specatators insisted that their candidate had won the debate. Everyone else agreed that Clinton did better at some moments, Obama at others, and both had a terrific night. In other words, everyone agreed that it was a hell of thing to watch two very impressive politicians (who were not, as most of us were pleased to notice, white men) vividly demonstrating why either of them was worthy of the prize.
What I think we're seeing in the polls is not a reflection of a particular moment in a debate, or a glamorous endorsement, but the typical tightening that occurs in a race as more and more voters pay attention to a pair of high-quality candidates--and I suspect that the tightening will continue. Absent a scandal, it's hard to imagine either of these candidates, or their surrogates, finding a tactic (never mind a strategy) that would cripple the other. Who truly believes an endorsement (whether by a pol or a union or a newspaper or a TV talking-head or a web-based interest group) can actually deliver a pivotal number of voters? Is there any evidence that's happened thus far in the race?
Hillary has been largely static though deemed ahead in most contests. Any overall picture would show Obama on a slow steady rise and Hillery mainly where she has been. My guess is that nothing will be decided finally on Super Tuesday either way but that Obama's rise will continue and ultimately gain the nomination, probably in contests before the convention. Best, S
PS Gallup has been moving Obama closer by a point a day.
Greg,
Was the poll you mentioned taken after the 1/31 debate?
Hillary began the early polling with a commanding lead, but we expected it to tighten.
I watched the debate attentively and was delighted at the lack of rancor.
When the last question was leveled, I too was delighted. I still believe a double ticket, like the JFK/Johnson ticket (at the time, I remember, a very hard act to accept) was audacious and worked, in a country almost evenly split.
I don't know if those two have the depth of integrity to consider it, but I hope they will.
It is evident that Hillary Clinton has the organization to achieve the nomination, even with Obama rising in polls in many states.
I believe Obama will come very, very close.
Prior to last week, I was a firm supporter of Clinton. After the former President Clinton took off with that very base set of attacks dripping with vitrol, it shook my confidence in her campaign because it was so distasteful, and I began to look much closer at Obama.
I like his quiet, confident manner. He takes belittling comments with dignity and continues pursuing the GOP agenda with focus and consistency.
While I do think Clinton is much more truly expert in the immense job of reversing the direction of the country and restoring our civil rights and our control over the government and the military, he is most impressive.
Some of my Democratic friends who chose to back Biden, Richardson or Edwards are completely convinced that the Republicans are being given the election by this choice, either one.
I'm not sure yet.
The commenters on the Washington Post website who are obviously GOP are vicious. Their posts drip with venom. There is no comment too low and disdainful and disrespectful for them to parrot. It's shameful.
This fall campaign is going to be brutal.
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