Poll, Poll, Pitiful Me for Wednesday

UPDATE #2  New Time mag poll has Obama up a full 5% in Ohio.  Basically tied among those who have not yet voted--but ahead 2-1 among those who have....Also, by wide margin, voters THINK Obama will win.

PPP reports Obama up 61%-39%--among early voters, anyway.  But he's up 4% among all voters, Senate race tied, they say.  Two other polls today put his lead at 2%.

UPDATE #1  Gallup's daily tracker, out at 1 p.m., which found some movement toward Obama yesterday, today finds more good news for the president:  He's closed gap with likely voters from 5% to 3%, he has taken lead among registered voters by 1%, and got a huge 5% swing on approval--a plus 2 upward and minus 3 down. So approval now at whopping 53%.  I predicted this yesterday.

The approval rating, also up yesterday, is a three-day-average.  It indicates very strong gain for Obama via the debate and indicates he will keep closing likely voter gap in days ahead.  I predicted yesterday that Gallup would find it tied this weekend but now think that will happen before then.  Also:  no way Obama can be trailing with a 53-42 approval gap.  Impossible.

A plug:  My 2009 book "Why Obama Won" on the 2008 campaign now out as e-book and this week only is just 99 cents!  

Earlier: Rasmussen's daily tracker (a 3-day average), which boosted Romney to an unprecedented 4% lead just yesterday, today finds that it remains unchanged despite all polls showing bad Romney defeat in debate.  But in a note, Rasmussen admits that the polling since the debate drops that margin down to 2%.

Quinnipiac poll gives Obama nice 5% lead in Ohio.   New Quinnipac/CBS poll finds that 1 in 5 in Ohio have already voted (nearly equal to all of 2008)--and Obama leads among them 54%-39%.  But remember: Dems have been pushing harder there on that.   SurveyUSA shows Obama with 3% lead in Ohio.  New Rasmussen, of course, has it dead even.

Obama takes lead in new Reuter-Ipsos by one point--and they give him whopping 322 electoral votes.  They also found that Obama easily won 3rd debate, 47%-31%.  Meanwhile, those in media and GOP bubble--Romney has Mittmentum! 

WBUR poll in Mass. shows Elizabeth Warren maintaining 5% lead there.   It also finds Mitt getting 36% of vote--in state that knows him best.  And Chris Murphy up on Linda McMahon by 5% in Conn.  That same Quinnipiac Ohio poll gives Sherrod Brown clear 9% lead there.