Pew Survey Gives Obama 10-Point Lead, But...

Pew late today announced new poll giving Obama a shocking 51-41 lead, but Nate Silver at NYT is throwing some cold water on it.  He says Pew results have been outliers, with Obama averaging a 7% lead this year, partly because they only poll registered voters without factoring in the "likely" factor.  Gallup, at the same time, has been "Romney-leaning."   Earlier today, Nate gave Obama a 70% chance of winning, his highest number yet.