Wednesday Today's much-awaited Gallup, just out at 1 pm, after yesterday's switch to likely voter format gave Romney first lead in a long time. Today: As some predicted, Romney bounce appears over, as Obama picks up 2% to gain a tie among likely voters.
Obama also picked up 2% among reg voters, to open 5% lead there. And his approval rating remained at very strong 53%--which few have noted.
Just out from Rasmussen--Obama maintaining 11% bulge in key state of New Mexico. Also: he maintains 6% lead in Penna.
Our first report of the day comes from Rasmussen tracker, just up at 9:30 a.m. which gives Romney a 1% national lead--not much, considering Rasmussen's GOP lean.
Tuesday update: New CNN poll has Obama up on Romney 51-47, and it was all done post-debate, AND it's likely voters, nor reg voters.
Another post-debate poll from Rasmussen in Nevada finds it dead even. Rasmussen also calls national race even, and it's generally GOP-leaning.
Nate Silver at NYT: Even with Romney gains this week, our new forecast simply moves race back to pre-convention period--when Obama held 70/30 chance to win.
Earlier Tuesday I noted earlier that Gallup was going to make its promised switch from "registered" voter model to "likely" voter tabulation today--a shift most polls made some time ago. This, theoretically, is a more accurate measure. And usually favors the GOP. So today there were warnings about how this would hurt Obama.
And indeed that came to past. Gallup's daily 1 p.m. update showed Romney in the lead for the first time in weeks, using the likely voter measure in its 7-day rolling average: 49% to 47%. But among registered voters, Obama still leads by 3%. And, very oddly, but perhaps heartening for Obama--since it's based on just a three-day average--his approval rating actually climbed again, to a very healthy 53%, one of his highest in hears. It's possible he has already rebounded after the post-debate meltdown.
In fact, Gallup reports this key finding: among registered voters, Obama had a 5-point lead before the debate. That went to zero in the three day after the debate. Since then: back to 5%.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Your Wednesday Poll Dance
is author of a dozen books (click on covers at right), including the new "THE TUNNELS: Escapes Under the Berlin Wall and the Historic Films the JFK White House Tried to Kill." He was the longtime editor of Editor & Publisher. Email: email@example.com. Twitter: @GregMitch