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Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Your Wednesday Poll Dance

Wednesday Today's much-awaited Gallup, just out at 1 pm, after yesterday's switch to likely voter format gave Romney first lead in a long time.  Today: As some predicted, Romney bounce appears over, as Obama picks up 2% to gain a tie among likely voters.

Obama also picked up 2% among reg voters, to open 5% lead there.  And his approval rating remained at very strong 53%--which few have noted.

 Just out from Rasmussen--Obama maintaining 11% bulge in key state of New Mexico.  Also: he maintains  6% lead in Penna.

Our first report of the day comes from Rasmussen tracker, just up at 9:30 a.m. which gives Romney a 1% national lead--not much, considering Rasmussen's GOP lean.

Tuesday update:   New CNN poll has Obama up on Romney 51-47, and it was all done post-debate, AND it's likely voters, nor reg voters.

Another post-debate poll from Rasmussen in Nevada finds it dead even.  Rasmussen also calls national race even, and it's generally GOP-leaning.

Nate Silver at NYT:  Even with Romney gains this week, our new forecast simply moves race back to pre-convention period--when Obama held 70/30 chance to win.

Earlier Tuesday  I noted earlier that Gallup was going to make its promised switch from "registered" voter model to "likely" voter tabulation today--a shift most polls made some time ago.  This, theoretically, is a more accurate measure.  And usually favors the GOP.  So today there were warnings about how this would hurt Obama.

And indeed that came to past.  Gallup's daily 1 p.m. update showed Romney in the lead for the first time in weeks, using the likely voter measure in its 7-day rolling average:  49% to 47%.  But among registered voters, Obama still leads by 3%.  And, very oddly, but perhaps heartening for Obama--since it's based on just a three-day average--his approval rating actually climbed again, to a very healthy 53%, one of his highest in hears.   It's possible he has already rebounded after the post-debate meltdown.

In fact, Gallup reports this key finding:  among registered voters, Obama had a 5-point lead before the debate.  That went to zero in the three day after the debate.  Since then: back to 5%. 

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