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Monday, October 29, 2012

Monday Poll Dancing

UPDATE #1:   New Pew national survey says, oddly, that Obama has failed to regain footing--but finds him tied with Romney while he was down 4% three weeks ago.   It finds only 6% edge among women for Obama, lower than most polls for sure.  And it finds voters expect Obama to win 49%-31%.

 New Gallup daily at 1 pm.  It found some gains for Obama yesrerday.  Today: Mixed news for Obama.  He lost the point he gained among likely voters yesterday (in the 7-day poll) and again trails by 5%.  However, he had a giant jump in the 3-day approval rating (after gaining 2% yesterday) and now back up to healthy 51%.  This suggests gains in the 7-day poll in coming days....

Obama at press conference just now: "I am not worried at this point on the impact on the election...It will take care of itself next week." He cancelled all appearances starting last night.  Bill Clinton filling in for him today i Florida. 

And away we go, eight days before the election.  Interesting new development:  Will polling decrease, or get less accurate, thanks to Sandy causing disruptions in reaching good samples?

More movement toward the president in Rasmussen, with its daily tracker knocking another point of the Romney lead (as it did yesterday), so it's down to 2%. 

Another new poll, good for Obama, is the Politico/Battleground which finds him with a 1% lead nationally--he had previously trailed by 2%.  He leads  53%-45% among those who have already voted (about 1 in 7 of all voters).  It found an 11% edge for Obama among women.

As we noted last night, new Reuters-Ipsos has him 3% ahead (even as Gallup and Rasmussen keep him down by 3%-4%).   Both PPP and WashPost/ABC have Romney by 1%.  Swing state polling continues to favor Obama and Nate Silver has maintained odds for Obama at around 73%.  New Rasmussen puts Romney 2% ahead in Ohio but Huff Post analysis today gives Obama  just over the needed 270 electoral votes from solid and leaning states--with 55 votes still full toss-ups.

PPP, often Dem-leaning, gives Sen. Sherrod Brown new 11% lead in Ohio.  The Cincinnati Enquirer backed Romney on Sunday--but also Brown. 

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