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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Sandy, Day 3

As I noted last night, lost power and everything related (but not wife, cat, house still in one piece, no flooding).   Got a tree issue taken care of today, with more to come but looking better.  But probably no power or home internet or heat for, oh, ten days at least....Told today that our town hall has heat and wi-fi so there now, and not too crowded, so may be able to do some actual blogging tomorrow, so stay tuned....Sorry to be out of commission in final week or election campaign I have followed as closely as anyone..... But my e-book on the campaign still set to go, on the Day After...

And, for now, for the hell of it, here's Nate Silver's latest forecasting today:

Mr. Obama made gains in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Tuesday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 77.4 percent.

A fair amount of this boils down to Ohio, where three polls released on Tuesday gave Mr. Obama leads by margins ranging from three to five percentage points. Two of the polls, from Grove Research and the Mellman Group, generally show strong results for Democrats, which give them less impact in the forecast after applying our adjustment for pollster “house effects”. Still, the three polls taken collectively were enough to widen Mr. Obama’s projected lead in Ohio to 2.4 percentage points from 2.1 on Monday. Given how central Ohio is to each candidate’s electoral strategy — and how little time remains in the race — this was enough to improve Mr. Obama’s Electoral College chances.

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