Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Ron Paul beating Rudy?
With the collapse of the Giuliani and Thompson campaigns, and John McCain focusing on New Hampshire, Ron Paul actually has a shot at finishing third in Iowa -- or so says Leaker-in-Chief Bob Novak over at the Human Events site. Or as he puts it: "A third-place finish for Paul is not out of the question." (He also picks Obama to take the Dem vote with Hillary finishing 3rd.). Plus, new New York Times pundit, Bill Kristol, blogging at his Weekly Standard, also predicts that Paul will "outperform" his poll numbers. So does Josh Marshall at the liberal Talking Points Memo. Ron Fournier, the veteran AP scribe, says Paul is "surging" in Iowa. Meanwhile, Kristol opines, "The media resents and dislikes Romney, for some good reasons and mostly bad ones."
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It shouldn't take much to outperform Ron Paul's poll numbers. Those polled were those who endorsed GWB in 2004 by voting in the primary (and that crowd is unlikely to be any significant part of RP's supporter base). And they must have land-line telephones, which a great many of Ron Paul's younger supporters don't. Coupled with the travesty that some "polls" don't even mention Ron Paul as a choice...and it's not hard to see why Paul shows poorly.
Contrast that to his great results in most straw polls, all internet polls and his astonishing fundraising. If he does well in the primaries, some of us won't be surprised.
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